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美国人的安于现状正在摧毁美国的未来

2021-07-13 20:04 我要评论(0)

核心提示:美国人现在正变得越来越安于现状。他们在脸书上与自己相似的人联络,坐在家里看网飞视频,用优步叫外卖,更经常服用药片,独自生活,搬家也更少。如今的美国已不再是那个不停歇的美国,当年的美国凭借坚韧不拔的毅力,将一个英国殖民地变成了一个主要的超级大国。

话题:美国人的安于现状正在摧毁美国的未来

The Dangers of American Complacency

阿煌看什么

译文简介:经济学家和博主泰勒·考恩在他的新书《安于现状的阶层:美国梦的自我毁灭》中探讨了这个主题。

正文翻译

Americans are becoming more complacent. People socialize with similar folks on Facebook and get food delivered through Uber while sitting at home streaming Netflix. Folks medicate themselves more, keep to themselves and move less often. This isn’t the same restless America whose grit helped transform a British colony into a major superpower.

美国人现在正变得越来越安于现状。他们在脸书上与自己相似的人联络,坐在家里看网飞视频,用优步叫外卖,更经常服用药片,独自生活,搬家也更少。如今的美国已不再是那个不停歇的美国,当年的美国凭借坚韧不拔的毅力,将一个英国殖民地变成了一个主要的超级大国。

Economist and blogger Tyler Cowen explores this theme in his new book, The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream. An economics professor at George Mason University, he is also chairman of the university’s Mercatus Center, a free-market think tank. Cowen recently spoke on the Knowledge@Wharton show, which airs on SiriusXM channel 111.

经济学家和博主泰勒·考恩在他的新书《安于现状的阶层:美国梦的自我毁灭》中探讨了这个主题。考恩是乔治梅森大学的经济学教授及该大学自由市场智库Mercatus中心的主任。考恩近日做客天狼星卫星广播公司111频道播出的沃顿知识在线节目,分享了他的观点。

Explain this need that people have for comfort and security in our society.

解释一下我们的社会对舒适和安全感的需求吧。

Tyler Cowen: American dynamism has been declining for several decades. We now have a society where we’re afraid to let our children play outside. We medicate ourselves at much higher rates. We hold jobs for longer periods of time. We move across state lines at much lower rates than before. Even our productivity growth is down. This is a kind of national malaise affecting this country.

泰勒·考恩:过去几十年来美国的活力一直在下降。我们现在生活在一个不敢让孩子在外面玩的社会,以更高的频率服药,在一份工作上待的时间更长。我们跨州活动的频率比以前低得多。甚至我们的生产力增长也在下降。这是影响美国的一种国家顽疾。

[This dynamism] was a core characteristic of our country as it developed back in the 1700s?

这种活力是我们国家从18世纪发展起来的一个核心特质吗?

Cowen: That’s correct. Even up through the 1980s and 1990s, this country was much more dynamic than it is today. There’s this myth that we’re so wonderfully innovative with tech. We have done some very nice things, but a lot of those improve your leisure time. They make it easier for you to goof off at work, easier just to stay at home and have things sent to you, or entertain yourself with the internet. So, it’s not actually making our economy that much more productive.

考恩:没错。直到上世纪八九十年代,美国都比今天更活跃。我们在技术上的创新已经成了神话。我们做了一些非常好的事情,但很多改善的是人们的闲暇生活。这些创新使人更容易消极怠工,待在家里等东西运到门前,或者在互联网上自娱自乐。所以,这其实并没有提高我们经济的生产力。

Is the tech revolution the driving force behind this shift, or are there other factors at play?

这一转变背后的驱动力是科技革命还是有其他因素呢?

Cowen: Some of it is tech, but I think some of it is just history. In this country, the 1960s and 1970s were so chaotic. People felt alienated. People decided “never again” for this. We improved this country a lot, but we also went too far in slowing down change, making it harder to build infrastructure, put in new apartment buildings. This is the era of NIMBY: not in my backyard.

考恩:一部分是科技,但我认为一部分是历史原因。美国的上世纪60-70年代相当混乱。人们感到疏离,决定“永远不要再这样”。我们大大改善了这个国家,但我们减缓变化做得有些过头了,这让建设基础设施和投入新公寓楼更难。这是一个“不要在我家后院(NIMBY)”的时代。

Can this be corrected, or are we at a point where we are going to be dealing with this for years to come?

这一趋势是可以纠正的,还是我们在未来多年都要面对的问题?

Cowen: [I think] for many years to come. I think it will be corrected in the sense that eventually we will fail and it will fall apart. That’s a kind of correction. But I don’t think we can just wake up and decide to go back to the dynamism of the America of 50 years ago. We’re too locked in.

考恩:我认为要很多年。我觉得要到我们最终失败并且解体的时候才能够纠正。这是一种纠正。但我不认为我们会突然觉醒,决定重新拥有50年前的美国活力状态。我们陷得太深了。

What do you think the American Dream is today?

你觉得今天的美国梦是什么样?

Cowen: The American Dream is strongest for immigrants. They are our least complacent class. They’re the most dynamic. In some ways, they’re neurotic. Striving and unhappy and building and grasping. I think that’s wonderful. I think parts of Silicon Valley are not so complacent. But overall, the American Dream has been a life with not so much change, where you get to keep what you feel is yours. I feel we can do better than that.

考恩:移民的美国梦是最强烈的。那些人是我们社会中最不安于现状的一批人。他们最有活力。在某些方面他们有些神经质,拼搏奋斗,不满眼前,建立基业,抓取机会。我觉得这很好。硅谷的一部分人并不那么安于现状。但总的来说,美国梦一直向往的是一种没有太多变化的生活,人们得以守住认为是自己的东西。我认为我们可以做得比这更好。

If we have an increasing level of entrepreneurship in this country, does that eat away at that complacency?

如果美国的创业精神越来越丰富,会抵消这种安于现状的情绪吗?

Cowen: Well, if we only did. Keep in mind that startups, as a percentage of total businesses, have been declining every decade since the 1980s. Also, keep in mind that immigrants start new businesses at a rate twice as high as native-born Americans. So, we’re ailing a bit on that one. I wouldn’t say all of our creativity is gone, but the picture is not as rosy as many people think.

考恩:嘿,如果是那样就好了。别忘了,上世纪80年代以来,创业公司占企业总数的百分比每十年都在下降。而且,移民创业的比例比本土美国人高出两倍。所以这是我们的一个问题。我不会说所有的创造力都消失了,但是局面并不像许多人想象的那样乐观。

What do we need to turn the page and start to see that dynamism again?

为了改变局面,重新看到这种活力,我们需要怎么做?

Cowen: There are plenty of laws and regulations I would change. In many parts of the economy, I’d have less regulation and make it easier for people to, say, put up a new apartment block in San Francisco or parts of New York City. But I think the fundamental issue is a psychological one. That is, why are we not so interested in those kinds of changes? In part, we believe we can continue as we had been, more or less forever. What I’m trying to do with my book is give people a greater sense of urgency.

考恩:我认为很多法律法规可以改变,在经济的许多方面减少监管,比如说,让人们更容易在旧金山或纽约的一些地方盖一套新的公寓楼。但我认为根本的问题是心理上的。我们为什么对这些变化不感兴趣?在某种程度上,我们相信几乎可以永远让现状持续下去。我写这本书就是为了让大家有更多紧迫感。

So, people feel like if they are comfortable right now, then they have exactly what they want?

所以,如果人们觉得自己现在很舒服,那么他们完全拥有了想要的东西?

Cowen: That’s right. But we’re eating into the seed capital for future generations. If we just stop being creative, at some point we can’t pay all the bills anymore.

考恩:没错。但我们正蚕食子孙后代的起始资本。如果我们停止创新,总有一天我们就无法支付所有的账单了。

Technology has actually made this problem worse?

技术其实加剧了这个问题?

Cowen: Sure. So, people do Netflix streaming at home. They just sit there. Amazon delivers packages. Uber will deliver your food. These are great conveniences.

I don’t think the point is to criticize them. The point is, when so many of your innovations are directed only toward convenience and not enough toward production and dynamism and reshaping your physical environment and building the next grand vision, your society will become a bit sleepy and complacent.

考恩:当然。所以人们在家里看网飞视频。他们只是坐在那儿。亚马逊递送包裹。优步送上食物。这都使生活非常方便。

我不是在批评他们。我想表达的是,当一个国家那么多创新都只针对便利性而不是足够的生产和活力,重塑物理环境以及建立下一个宏伟愿景时,这个社会将变得有点昏昏欲睡和懈怠。

If we were able to rebuild the manufacturing sector here in the United States, would that help the mindset?

如果我们能够在美国重建制造业,能帮助调整心态吗?

Cowen: I would stress that the manufacturing sector, in terms of output, pretty much has been rising every year except for the recession, contrary to what you hear. What’s gone down are manufacturing jobs, and that’s because of automation. I don’t think there’s any way to bring those jobs back. But the sector itself is doing fine. In a sense, that makes it harder.

科恩:我想强调的是制造业的产出几乎每年都在提高,除了经济衰退那几年,和你听到的相反。下降的是制造业的就业,原因在自动化。我认为没有办法恢复这些就业岗位。但是行业本身发展不错。从某种意义上讲,这使得局面变得更难。

People have busier lives than we’ve had at any point in the last 20, 30 years, especially people with kids. Maybe they don’t want to take the time to do the searching, or they feel more reliant on some of the newer tools that we have.

人们的生活比过去二三十年任何时候都更忙碌,尤其有孩子的人。 也许他们不想花时间去搜索,或者他们更依赖现在拥有的一些较新的工具。

Cowen: I draw a distinction in the book between physical space and information space. We’re much, much busier in information space — managing our e-mail, being on Facebook, dealing with what our smartphone sends our way. Again, that can be useful, but we’re so over-specializing in this one part of life and so stagnant in terms of the other parts, like building a better and brighter nation, improving our infrastructure, having some grand project for the future. I think there’s a very dangerous imbalance.

考恩:我在书里对物理领域和信息领域作出了区分。我们在信息领域里忙得多:处理电子邮件、刷Facebook、处理智能手机发给我们的任何信息。同样,这是有用的,但我们生活的这一方面过度专业化,其他方面却停滞不前,比如建立一个更美好、更有希望的国家,改善基础设施以及开展一些面向未来的宏伟项目。 我认为这是一个非常危险的失衡。

How does this problem relate to the different economic classes, the haves and have-nots?

这个问题怎样涉及富人和穷人这些不同的经济阶层?

Cowen: You see complacency at all levels, though it takes very different forms. The haves tend to think everything’s fine. They have a lot of criticisms about social justice, but they don’t see it as so urgent the way Americans did in the 1960s.

The have-nots are typically not so content, of course. But they tend to live with their parents for many more years than used to be the case. They’re less interested in buying cars or owning homes. They move much less for jobs. They’re more likely to take opiates or smoke marijuana. They’re more likely to seek being on disability even if they’re not fully disabled. I think they, too, are somewhat of a complacent class.

考恩:所有阶层都安于现状,尽管形式不同。人们倾向于认为一切都很好。他们对社会正义有很多批评,但他们看待的方式并不像60年代的美国人那么迫切。

穷人当然没有那么容易满足。但他们往往与父母一起生活多年,比前几代人时间更久。他们对购买汽车或拥有房屋的兴趣较小,换工作的频率更低。他们更有可能服用鸦片或吸大麻。他们更有可能寻求残疾人待遇,即使他们没有完全残疾。 我认为他们也是一个安逸的阶层。

You brought up NIMBY. You have several other ones to go along with it, including NIMEY — not in my election year. That plays into the problem of complacency within our government.

您提到NIMBY。您还提出其他几个缩略语,比如“不要在我的选举年(NIMEY)”,这指向我们政府安于现状的问题。

Cowen: Midterm elections are less than two years away. People in Washington, D.C., are already gaming it. It makes it harder to change things. Politics is more polarized and people now have the sense that no voter should ever have to take much of a loss on anything at all.

考恩:中期选举还有两年不到的时间。华盛顿的人已经在谋划了。这让做出改变更难。政治更加两极化,人们现在认为,任何选民都不应该在任何事项上接受很大的损失。0

There’s been a surge in political protesting. How does that impact what you’re talking about?

政治抗议激增。这会影响你指出的现状吗?

Cowen: I think that’s healthy. I don’t agree with everything the protesters are calling for, but I’m happy to see it. There’s been too long a time in this country where we have not had a healthy tradition of protest. We’ve bureaucratized our rebellion, so to speak. It’s much harder to get the permits and to be in the spaces you want to be in. I’m hopeful this is a slight re-emergence of political dynamism.

For all the polarization, there’s actually an odd agreement that not too many things in America should be allowed to change. Trump himself campaigned on cementing in all entitlements. Whether or not one agrees with that, it’s remarkable. That’s almost 80% of the budget, and the two parties agree on that almost entirely.

科恩:我认为这是良性的。我不同意抗议者的每个提议,但我很高兴看到抗议发生。这个国家丧失良性抗议的传统已经很久了。 可以说我们把反叛官僚化了。 获得许可并进入想进入的空间比以前难得多。我希望这是政治活力的轻微重现。

对于所有的两极分化,其实有一个奇怪的共识,认为美国不应该容许太多的改变。 特朗普自己的竞选宣传就集中在巩固所有权利上。无论大家是否同意这一点,这是非常明显的。这几乎是预算的80%,两党的观点基本一致。

Getting back to technology, I’m guessing that’s part of the reason why we [like so many of the same things] rather than seeking out unique things and finding our own paths.

把话题回到技术上,我猜这是部分原因所在,我们喜欢这么多同样的东西,而不是追求独特的东西,寻找自己的路径。

Cowen: That’s right. It’s very easy to ignore the world when the internet is fun and, at the margin, it’s cheap. You can protest politically on your Facebook page or write a tweet and just put it aside, get to the next thing. I think that’s the world we have right now, and I don’t think it’s done very well by our politics. Our governance, in my view, is increasingly dysfunctional.

考恩:这没错。当互联网又有趣又便宜时,很容易忽视真实世界。你可以在你的Facebook页面上政治抗议,或者写一条推特,然后放在一边,做下一件事。我认为这是我们现在的世界,我不认为我们的政治运转很好。在我看来,我们的治理越来越失去效果。

A lot of people would say that social media has taken away our in-person connectivity with each other.

很多人会说社交媒体已经取代人与人直接的相互连接。

Cowen: Where we live is a bigger problem. These days, Democrats are much more likely to live next to other Democrats, and the same is true for Republicans. The notion of people not really knowing people who voted for the other candidate is much more prent now than it was in the 1980s or 1990s.

考恩:我们居住的社区是一个更大的问题。如今,民主党人更有可能与其他民主党人作邻居,共和党人也是如此。不了解投票给另一个候选人的群体的事实比八九十年代更为普遍。

Do you expect that to continue and grow? You talk about this new level of segregation that’s happening in the U.S.

你认为这种情况会持续发展下去吗?你谈到在美国正在发生的新的隔离现象。

Cowen: There’s a lot of evidence that it’s worsening as we speak. It’s mostly based on income. Can you afford to buy into the nice neighborhood? I don’t think it’s overt racism, for the most part. There’s some of that, but income maps into race, it maps into education, and it’s making us a more divided nation.

There’s a big divide. I wouldn’t put it in terms of the 1% versus the 99%. I think it’s highly educated people with good jobs, who are at least 15% or 20% [of the population], versus others. You know, the top 5% and the top 1%, their perspectives are not really that different.

考恩:有很多的证据表明这正在一天天恶化。隔离主要是由收入差距产生。您有钱住进高档的社区吗?大多数情况下我不认为这是公开的种族主义。有一些方面是,但收入关系到种族,它关系到教育,这使我们成为一个更加分裂的国家。

这是一个很大的鸿沟。我不会认为是1%与99%的区别。我认为这是受过高等教育、工作体面的人群,至少占15%或20%。其实最富有的5%和最富有的1%的人群观点并没有太大的不同。

You have a chapter in the book titled, “Why Americans Stopped Creating.” When you look at it from a historical perspective, what happened?

你书里“为什么美国停止了创造”一章谈到了历史角度,具体是什么?

Cowen: America of the 20th century was built on the idea of powerful machines and factories and fossil fuels and manufacturing. We created every possible innovation based on the combination of those ideas with electricity. You get the radio, the car, the plane. We do phenomenally well with those. But we’ve somewhat exhausted those technologies.

Each decade they get a little better, but cars are still basically cars. If you took the Tyler Cowen of 1979, when I learned to drive, and put him in a car today, I could work the whole thing without even having to think about it.

That’s a little discouraging. It’s not what our ancestors would have expected or what you read about in science fiction. I think slowly but surely we’ll create a new technological paradigm in this country — how to do things that are not just machines and fossil fuels, how to make health care and education extremely productive again. But we’re certainly not there now.

科恩:20世纪美国的主流是强大的机器和工厂,以及化石燃料和制造业。我们根据这些想法与电力结合进行了所有可能的创新——收音机、汽车、飞机。我们做得相当出色,但是我们已经用尽了这些技术。

每十年这些技术会改进一些,但汽车本质上仍然是汽车。把1979年刚学会开车的我,放到今天的一辆车里,我可以想都不用想就操作所有设备。

这有点遗憾。这不是我们祖先希望看到的,也不是你会在科幻小说里读到的。我认为,缓慢但肯定的是,我们会在这个国家创造一个新的技术体系,创造机器和化石燃料以外的事物,使医疗和教育重获生产力。但我们目前当然差得远。

Do you think right now we want to find other people who match with us so we don’t have to struggle?

你是否认为我们现在想的就是找到跟我们般配的人,让我们不必那么为生活努力?

Cowen: That’s right. You get one law partner marrying another, and odds are they’re quite happy. But in terms of overall social mobility, maybe that’s not ideal. People can match to the music they want to hear so much more easily than before. Satellite radio is one way; I do it myself. But in terms of new musical creativity, I don’t feel we’re living in a wonderful time. It’s a great time for the listener, not a good time for the creator.

考恩:是这样的。你看到一个律师事务所的合伙人和另一个合伙人结婚,而且他们非常幸福的概率很大。但是在整体社会流动性方面,这也许并不是最理想的。人们现在要找到他们想要听的音乐比以前容易多了。广播电台是一种方式,我自己也在做。但是,在新的音乐创作方面,我不认为我们生活在一个很好的时代。这是听众的好时代,而不是创作者的好时代。

Going back to the recent election cycle and protesting, what happened that took away the ’60s mentality? We had a gap of 35 years or 40 years where you just didn’t have protests as a staple of American society.

说回最近的选举周期和抗议,是什么让60年代的心态消失了? 我们有一段35年或40年的时间间隔,在那时候,抗议活动并不是美国社会的主要组成部分。

Cowen: I think around 1980, we decided that world was too chaotic, too volatile, and we were going to end [the chaos]. We were going to do everything possible to lower crime, no matter how many people we had to lock up or how much broken-windows policing that would mean. Again, those were mostly positive developments. But once you’re on a track to make everything safer, it’s very hard to stop or to restrain yourself along the appropriate margins. We’ve just gone way too far.

Now we’re locked into this mentality, and it’s hard for us even to see how much we’re committed to a kind of complacent embrace of the status quo, backed up by a lot of complaining. We observe our own complaining, think we’re not complacent, but we’re fooling ourselves.

科恩:在我看来,1980年左右人们一致认为世界充满混乱,极不稳定,要结束混乱,要尽一切可能降低犯罪率,无论得囚禁多少人,无论这些政策多么微观。 当然,这些都是积极的发展。但是,一旦走上一条使一切更安全的轨道,就很难在恰当的程度停下来或有所约束。我们只是走得太远了。

现在我们陷入了这种心态,我们甚至很难察觉我们对现状的拥抱多么坚决,然后还伴之以很多抱怨。我们看到自己的抱怨,认为我们不满于安逸,但实际上我们就是满足于现状,我们在自欺欺人。

You talk about the impact of these problems on the political structure. What is the future of our political structure because of this complacency?

你谈到的这些问题上对政治结构的影响。这种安于现状的心态会使未来政治结构变成什么样?

Cowen: The American political system works best when there’s a growing pie and you can hand out something to everyone. It’s not always pretty, but it does work. When you have a fixed pie and you’re fighting over the same pieces of that pie, things become more divisive. Ultimately, the quality of governance declines, in terms of execution and competence and the public feeling that government is accountable to it. We’re seeing all that already. So, the crisis may be coming even more quickly than I had expected.

The next 10 years will be a very bumpy time, most of all politically. Is there a national consensus over what we should do with our budget and our resources? I don’t see it. And each side thinks the other side is not really legitimate.

科恩:美国政治制度效果最好的时候,是饼越来越大,可以给每个人都分一点。这饼并不一定完美,但确实有用。当饼大小固定,每个人都在抢同一块时,社会就变得更加分裂。最终,治理质量下降,包括执行力和能力都在降低,公众认为政府应对此负责。这些我们都看到了。所以,这个危机的到来可能比我预期的要快得多。

未来十年将是一个非常不太平的时期,主要是在政治上。对于如何运用预算资金和资源我们有国家共识吗?我没看到。而每一方都认为对方的立场站不住脚。

If we can’t even agree on basic things on Capitol Hill, then it’s next to impossible to be able to push forward a lot of these new ideas, correct?

如果政府连基本的事项都无法达成共识,那么它几乎不可能推动我们谈到的很多新想法,对吗?

Cowen: That’s exactly what we’re seeing. You see it with health care reform. The Republicans voted over 60 times to get rid of Obamacare. Whether or not you agree with that, they did. Now they’re in power, and they’re not going to get rid of Obamacare. They want to tweak it at the fringes. Again, whether you agree or disagree, it’s a sign of how stuck we are, that we can’t imagine ways of doing things in a fundamentally different way. Benefits get locked in, and we have a big status quo bias

考恩:这正是我们现在看到的。医疗改革就是这样。共和党人为了废除奥巴马医保提案投了60多次票。不管你是否同意,他们赢了。现在他们掌权了,他们不废除奥巴马医保,只想在边边角角调整。同样,无论你同意还是不同意,这个迹象表明我们多么举步维艰,我们无法想象全然不同的做事方式。利益被锁定,而我们对现状的认识存在极大偏差。

评论翻译

Matthew Tymczyszyn

I think the problem is that we’re not complacent. We could weed out corrupt judges who pardon policemen, but no, let’s play the race card!

That’s an easy one, but there’s a lot more. We understand climate change is a problem, but we drive everywhere; we want cheap public healthcare, but we eat obsessively; we want to live near public transit but with a cheap degree, and so on and so on.

I think if most of us were more complacent, 99% of our problems would disappear.

我认为问题在于我们并没有安于现状。我们可以剔除赦免警察的腐败法官,但是不行,让我们打种族牌吧!

这是一个简单的问题,但是还有很多。我们知道气候变化是一个问题,但我们到处开车;我们想要廉价的公共医疗保健,但我们沉迷于饮食;我们想住在公共交通设施附近,但又想要低廉的学费,等等之类的。

我认为如果我们中的大多数人更加安于现状,99%的问题就会消失。

Robert Martin Pollack

Bread and circuses. Even though Americans as a group are being robbed blind by the rich, they are still relatively wealthy. Even the poorest Americans still have cars, cell phones, big screen tvs, stereos and enough to eat. If you want to see riots in the streets, just shut off all their cell phone service.

面包和马戏团。尽管美国人作为一个群体正在被富人洗劫一空,但他们仍然相对富有。即使是最穷的美国人也有汽车、手机、大屏幕电视、音响和足够的食物。但如果你想看到街上发生骚乱,就关掉他们所有的手机服务。

James Alexander-Rodriguez

I agree. There are people out there chipping away at our civil rights and not one celebrity, politician, or identifiable citizen challenging it. Now that is complacency.

我同意。我们的公民权利正在被一点点蚕食,没有一个名人、政治家或者可辨认的公民在挑战这情况。这就是安于现状。

Michael Epright

Things are so good that can’t possibly be the issue.

I’ve heard ignorance and apathy but I don’t know and I don’t care.

一切都非常好,这点不可能是问题所在。

我听说过无知和冷漠,但我不知道,也不在乎。

Jim Logan

Complacency or George soros is the danger for Americans.

安于现状和乔治索罗斯是美国人面临的危险。 

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["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350821.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0711/1625975917584.jpg" ["description"]=> string(217) "一个塔利班代表团8日来到莫斯科,并与俄罗斯方面进行了会谈。按照俄罗斯官方的说法,普京知道塔利班代表团来了,认为“有必要”就阿富汗局势与塔利班接触。" ["time"]=> int(1625975923) } [11]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350804) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(59) ""中国崩溃论"学者章家敦称中国将栽在阿富汗" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350804.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0711/1625963716836.jpg" ["description"]=> string(246) "正当美国“悄悄”从阿富汗撤军,塔利班又向中国发出了一番友好表态之际,常年散播“中国崩溃论”的美籍华人章家敦(Gordon G. Chang)又活跃了起来,发表的观点还是“熟悉的味道”。" ["time"]=> int(1625963749) } [12]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350761) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(59) "21名专家撰文:病毒极不可能来自武汉实验室" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350761.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0709/1625831726920.jpg" ["description"]=> string(340) "继24位科学家在《柳叶刀》上联合发声驳斥新冠病毒“实验室起源”论、声援中国后,又有21名来自美国、英国、澳大利亚等国科学家联合撰文驳斥了“实验室起源论”,因为这一理论得不到证据支持。相比之下,有“大量科学证据”表明新冠病毒来自动物。" ["time"]=> int(1625831733) } [13]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350794) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(48) "黄智贤:在大陆,台湾人的命才是命" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350794.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0710/1625914834349.jpg" ["description"]=> string(292) "9日,台湾名嘴黄智贤在微博发文,以“在大陆,台湾人的命才是命”为题讲述两岸在防疫、疫苗方面的不同,最后她表示,台湾人到大陆,才知道台湾人的命在台湾是多么的不值钱,到大陆台湾人的命,才终于“值钱”。" ["time"]=> int(1625914839) } [14]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350795) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(48) "环评:阿富汗是中美善恶的一面镜子" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350795.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0710/1625915052711.jpg" ["description"]=> string(168) "美国总统拜登星期四宣布全部驻阿富汗美军将在8月31日之前撤离,他宣称阿富汗战争的反恐目标已经实现,现在是时候离开了。" ["time"]=> int(1625915057) } [15]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350777) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(61) "俄专家驳斥美智库观点 强调中国发展高速增长" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350777.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0710/1625884376617.jpg" ["description"]=> string(284) "俄罗斯高等经济学院下属欧洲与国际综合研究中心国际军事政治与军事经济课题处主任瓦西里·卡申在接受俄《消息报》采访时表示,中国的发展模式展现出高速增长,美国的文化和意识形态的吸引力则在逐渐减弱。" ["time"]=> int(1625884398) } [16]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350755) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(58) "严谨:海地总统遇刺 美国扮演了什么角色?" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350755.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0709/1625827768754.jpg" ["description"]=> string(316) "今年2月以来,包括中国在内主要援助国及联合国对海地局势表示严正关切,严厉批评海地政府“自私自利”,敦促其回应民众关切、承担应有义务。这表明国际社会对海地政府的耐心和信心均已耗尽,调整原有“援海方案”已是各国共识。" ["time"]=> int(1625827816) } [17]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350762) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(60) "欧阳为:美国基础设施有多差?你或许想不到" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350762.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0709/1625832844467.jpg" ["description"]=> string(148) "继今年2月得克萨斯州大面积停电事故之后,近期发生的佛罗里达州住宅楼坍塌事故再次暴露美国基础设施窘境。" ["time"]=> int(1625832846) } [18]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350754) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(54) "沈逸:美国塌楼救援荒诞局面有其必然性" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350754.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0709/1625826932364.jpg" ["description"]=> string(300) "美国迈阿密当地政府7日宣布,持续两周的迈阿密坍塌居民楼搜救工作正式停止,并将过渡到恢复工作。事故至今已造成54人死亡,另有86人失踪,基本可以推定为罹难,自事故发生后,被成功的施救人数一直默默保持在了“0”。" ["time"]=> int(1625826993) } [19]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350750) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(60) "环时深度:美国星条旗为何“不再象征团结”" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350750.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0709/1625805371509.jpg" ["description"]=> string(230) "每年一到7月4日,美国人庆祝独立日的场景就会出现在国际各大媒体中。在各种新闻照片里,出现最多的元素便是星条旗,它或被人披在身上、高高举着,或在建筑物上飘扬。" ["time"]=> int(1625805465) } [20]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350742) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(60) "小张同学:同时与中俄开战将是美军的地狱!" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(38) "http://mil.m4.cn/2021-07/1350742.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0709/1625799739483.jpg" ["description"]=> string(299) "近日,美国19FortyFive的军事专家模拟了美国与中国和俄罗斯在两条战线上同时开战的场景。结论:五角大楼将无法长期坐在两把椅子上,同时与中俄开战将是美军的地狱,美国迟早将不得不重新考虑构建世界秩序的政策和计划。" ["time"]=> int(1625799763) } [21]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350736) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(60) "基辛格:中美任何一方都不应该谋求技术垄断" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350736.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0709/1625795121665.jpg" ["description"]=> string(266) "7月8日,以“智联世界·众智成城”为主题的2021世界人工智能大会(WAIC2021)在上海召开。开幕式上,前美国国家安全顾问兼国务卿、基辛格国际咨询公司董事长亨利·艾尔弗雷德·基辛格发表视频演讲。" ["time"]=> int(1625795124) } [22]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350719) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(58) "补壹刀:海地总统被杀 最伤心的是蔡英文?" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350719.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0708/1625749374784.jpg" ["description"]=> string(234) "海地总统莫伊兹被刺杀的消息传到中国互联网上,网友说,蔡英文这次又要哭孝了。因为海地是为数不多的台湾的几个所谓“邦交国”之一。而莫伊兹和蔡英文也打过数次交道。" ["time"]=> int(1625749380) } [23]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350717) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(59) "汤姆·福迪:美国大公司威胁退出香港是好事" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(39) "http://news.m4.cn/2021-07/1350717.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0708/1625747474143.jpg" ["description"]=> string(252) "香港拟议中修订打击“起底”行为的相关条例,让西方一些大型科技公司感到不安,甚至传出美国的几家大公司威胁要离开香港(的假新闻)。但实际上,它们的离开可能对香港是有好处的。" ["time"]=> int(1625747600) } [24]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350696) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(58) "杨希雨:白宫对台湾当局的"以武撑独"说"不"" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350696.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0708/1625711848402.jpg" ["description"]=> string(249) "拜登政府首次表态“不支持台湾独立”。接受俄罗斯卫星通讯社采访的专家表示,这是拜登政府向台湾当局释放的清晰信号,即对民进党日益幻想和期盼的美国“以武撑独”表示明确拒绝。" ["time"]=> int(1625711913) } [25]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350688) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(51) "补壹刀:美国正在全世界疯狂搜集数据" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350688.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0707/1625665042142.jpg" ["description"]=> string(400) "互联网平台掌握的个人数据流向何方,一直是社会最敏感的神经。美国政府对这些海量数据的疯狂索取,毫不掩饰。它的目标很清晰:建立全球数据霸权。得数据者得天下。美国究竟做了多少准备?它的手究竟能伸多长?中国企业究竟面临哪些风险甚至陷阱?这是一个看不见的战场,但硝烟已经弥漫。 " ["time"]=> int(1625665106) } [26]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350691) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(58) "牛弹琴:海地总统遇害震惊世界 多国谴责!" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350691.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0708/1625709855651.jpg" ["description"]=> string(228) "海地总统突然被枪杀,第一夫人被紧急送到美国抢救,也没能抢救过来。虽然海地是一个典型的失败国家,三天两头都有暗杀事件,但暗杀到一国总统家里,还是让人震惊。" ["time"]=> int(1625709871) } [27]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350664) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(45) "李光满:战争真的离我们很远吗?" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(38) "http://mil.m4.cn/2021-06/1350275.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0709/1625842638632.jpg" ["description"]=> string(285) "最近这段时间,世界军事领域发生了一些隐含象征意义的事件,显示大国之间的军事博弈、军事试探、军事对抗、军事竞争日趋激烈,大国之间的军事冲突完全可能爆发,这不能不令人思考,战争真的离我们很远吗?" ["time"]=> int(1625625160) } [28]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1350683) ["icon"]=> string(5) "blank" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(66) "海上客:“防卫台湾”?该怎么对付麻生太郎之流" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2021-07/1350683.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(27) "2021/0707/1625661335517.jpg" ["description"]=> string(263) "就在七七事变84周年前夕,现任的日本副首相兼财务大臣麻生太郎大放厥词。他号称,如果中国大陆“入侵”台湾,对日本来说是“存亡危机事态”,日本就可以行使自卫权,并和美国一起防卫台湾。" ["time"]=> int(1625661363) } }

张文木:美国东亚地缘战略的底线和极限

1普京将不参加美国主持下的抗击冠状病毒全球
2香港选委会选举4380人投票 投票率近90%
3联合国秘书长称美中关系"失能" 白宫:不同
4国际锐评:"澳洲那个伙计" 别再丢人现眼下
5投完票后悔了?半数选民认为特朗普比拜登更
6塔利班赞扬上合组织峰会关于阿富汗问题的立
7上万海地移民涌入美得州边境城市 特朗普怒
8美国新冠疫情死亡数67.5万 超过西班牙大流
9韩国少年防弹团和他们的粉丝大军淹没联合国
10航天员镜头下的月亮 来自太空的"礼物"提前
11统一俄罗斯党在杜马选举中获胜 得票率49.82
12CNN就核潜争端问"中国是否渔翁得利"欧盟高
13巴西总统出席联大 没打疫苗只能纽约市"街头
14台农委会将就水果遭禁向WTO提起诉讼 台专家
15沙特阿拉伯在对华供应石油方面保持领先地位
16天舟三号货运飞船发射成功!
17外交危机!法议员:停止"沉迷幻想"退出北约
18取消潜艇订单法国怒喷后 莫里森:我永远不
19欧盟支持法国立场,要求美澳就潜艇事件作出
20露馅了!台诊所帮接种"高端"疫苗民众验抗体
1重推!李毅:秦始皇 毛泽东散论
2啪啪打脸!经典爽文共赏,他们自己都不敢这
3普京将不参加美国主持下的抗击冠状病毒全球
4白宫发言人普萨基称:美国不寻求与中国进行
5牛弹琴:法国将错就错,正在下一盘大棋!
6科学家发现新冠病毒自然起源的新证据
7补壹刀:日本,这是准备和中国大打一仗?
8米利将军为自己与中国通话进行辩护
9世界第一个钍核反应堆将在甘肃武威试运行
10美国永不与中国开战?金一南:代价太大自然
11中国申请加入CPTPP 日本来“挑刺”了
12美国人没放弃毒害中国青年,这个网站就是例
13费奥多罗夫:中国将如何应对美澳加强军事关
14香港选委会选举4380人投票 投票率近90%
15特朗普、蓬佩奥爆瘦背后的秘密 为何卸任了
16台湾"最美主持人"李明璇 当街被抽耳光!
17震惊全美情侣谜案 女方失踪地寻获遗体 男方
18日媒:中国制造业韧性与竞争力十足
19解读:中国为何积极考虑CPTPP?
20澳大利亚外长佩恩:澳寻求与中国进行对话
1保罗·肯尼迪:中美之间出现惊人的对比
2欧洲多国爆发抗议活动!民众反对疫情封锁
3罗援:阿富汗战争带给世人四个启示
4重推!李毅:秦始皇 毛泽东散论
5张文木:论美国从阿富汗撤军 ——兼析所谓"
6乌总统喊话中国:马达西奇应留在乌克兰
7福山:“美国时代的终结”早就到来了……
8印度记者挑衅性提问 阿塔发言人的反问扎心
9啪啪打脸!经典爽文共赏,他们自己都不敢这
10解放军报钧正平:绝不可“娘炮”审美!
11金灿荣:9·11后20年,美国内外伤挺重,但
12又喊"狼来了"!被禁的中国App重回印度
13美媒:富裕中国游客疫情期间去哪儿了?
14阿富汗副总统萨利赫讲述政府垮台原因
15普京将不参加美国主持下的抗击冠状病毒全球
16司马南:台湾有些事情可能来得全不费功夫
17罗援将军:阿富汗战争给世人的启示
18美媒:中国兵不血刃地主导南太平洋
19李光满:加拿大若引渡孟晚舟 应视为对中国
20白宫发言人普萨基称:美国不寻求与中国进行