美国学者:新冠病毒可能重塑全球秩序
2020-04-03 10:59 作者:译通社 我要评论(0)
核心提示:奥巴马时期的亚太事务助理国务卿坎贝尔(Kurt M. Campbell)和耶鲁大学学者杜如松(Rush Doshi)近日在美国《外交事务》杂志官网发表了一篇题为《新冠病毒可能重塑全球秩序》的文章,认为伴随着美国国际地位的动摇,中国正逐渐承担起国际事务主导地位。
美国学者:新冠病毒可能重塑全球秩序
以下文章来源于译通社 ,作者:译通社
编者按:
奥巴马时期的亚太事务助理国务卿坎贝尔(Kurt M. Campbell)和耶鲁大学学者杜如松(Rush Doshi)近日在美国《外交事务》杂志官网发表了一篇题为《新冠病毒可能重塑全球秩序》的文章,认为伴随着美国国际地位的动摇,中国正逐渐承担起国际事务主导地位。
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新冠病毒可能重塑全球秩序
伴随着美国国际地位的动摇,
中国正逐渐承担起国际事务主导地位。
文 | Kurt M. Campbell/ Rush Doshi
译 | 译通社
在全球数亿民众自我隔离之际,新型冠状病毒已然演变为一起真正的全球性事件。虽然新冠病毒的地缘政治影响应被视为次于健康与安全问题的因素,但从长远来看,尤其是涉及美国全球地位时,这一因素也同样重要。全球秩序改变之初往往不疾不徐,之后便猝不及防。1956年,一场在苏伊士上演的拙劣干预暴露了英国国力的衰弱,标志着英国作为世界强权的统治终结。
而今天,如果美国的决策者不能吸取前车之鉴,积极应对这一事件,那么新型冠状病毒可能就是下一个“苏伊士时刻”(注1)。
With hundreds of millions of people now isolating themselves around the world, the novel coronavirus pandemic has become a truly global event. And while its geopolitical implications should be considered secondary to matters of health and safety, those implications may, in the long term, prove just as consequential—especially when it comes to the United States’ global position. Global orders have a tendency to change gradually at first and then all at once. In 1956, a botched intervention in the Suez laid bare the decay in British power and marked the end of the United Kingdom’s reign as a global power. Today, U.S. policymakers should recognize that if the United States does not rise to meet the moment, the coronavirus pandemic could mark another “Suez moment.”
现在看来,除了最狭隘的党派外,所有人都心知肚明,华府一开始对疫情的应对就是一团糟。从白宫到国土安全局再到疾病控制和预防中心(CDC),关键的政府机构屡屡失误,这已经使民众对美国政府的管制能力心存疑虑。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)无论是在总统办公室还是清晨的推特上所作的公开声明,都很大程度上引起了人们的困惑,传播着不确定性。公共和私有部门均未准备好生产及分发测试、应对病毒的必要工具。在国际上,本次疫情放大了特朗普放任自流的本意,暴露了华府并未做出充足准备应对疫情。
It is now clear to all but the most blinkered partisans that Washington has botched its initial response. Missteps by key institutions, from the White House and the Department of Homeland Security to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), have undermined confidence in the capacity and competence of U.S. governance. Public statements by President Donald Trump, whether Oval Office addresses orearly-morning tweets, have largely served to sow confusion and spread uncertainty. Both public and private sectors have proved ill-prepared to produce and distribute the tools necessary for testing and response. And internationally, the pandemic has amplified Trump’s instincts to go it alone and exposed just how unprepared Washington is to lead a global response.
以下是对这一情况的深入分析
在过去七十年里,美国作为全球领袖的地位不仅基于雄厚的财力和大国势力,同样也基于美国在治国、供给全球公共物资、有能力有意愿调动及协调国际力量应对各危机等方面的举措合理。新型冠状病毒正检验着这三个美国赖以维持国际领导力要素。迄今为止,华府并未能经受考验。
The status of the United States as a global leader over the past seven decades has been built not just on wealth and power but also, and just as important, on the legitimacy that flows from the United States’ domestic governance, provision of global public goods, and ability and willingness to muster and coordinate a global response to crises. The coronavirus pandemic is testing all three elements of U.S. leadership. So far, Washington is failing the test.
在华府踟蹰不前之时,北京政府正以迅雷不及掩耳之速弥补美国应对疫情的失误所造成的缺口,并在病毒应对的过程中将自身定位为全球领导。北京政府致力于兜售自身研发的系统,为其他国家提供物资援助,甚至组织其他国家政府开展援助活动。中国此举的纯粹性很难夸夸其谈。毕竟,这是北京政府自身的过失(译者注:此处为作者主观偏见),尤其是它起初试图掩饰疫情的严重度和传染力度,才造成了当今危害世界各国的危机。但是北京政府明白,如果它被视为领导,华府被视为无力或不愿采取行动,这一观念可能从根本上改变美国的全球政治地位以及21世纪为全球领导地位博弈的局面。
As Washington falters, Beijing is moving quickly and adeptly to take advantage of the opening created by U.S. mistakes, filling the vacuum to position itself as the global leader in pandemic response. It is working to tout its own system, provide material assistance to other countries, and even organize other governments. The sheer chutzpah of China’s move is hard to overstate. After all, it was Beijing’s own missteps—especially its efforts at first to cover up the severity and spread of the outbreak—that helped create the very crisis now afflicting much of the world. Yet Beijing understands that if it is seen as leading, and Washington is seen as unable or unwilling to do so, this perception could fundamentally alter the United States’ position in global politics and the contest for leadership in the twenty-first century.
当没有一个欧洲国家回应意大利呼吁医疗设备和防护装置的紧急求助时,中国公开承诺寄送给意大利一千台呼吸机,两百万口罩,十万面罩,两万防护服以及五万测试盒。中国还向伊朗派遣医疗队,寄送二十五万只口罩,对塞尔维亚也施以援助之手。塞尔维亚的总统曾排外地称欧洲的团结为“天方夜谭”并宣称“唯一能帮助我们的只有中国”,阿里巴巴的创始人马云承诺向美国寄送大量的检测盒和口罩,并向非洲54个国家寄送两万只检测盒以及十万只口罩。
When no European state answered Italy’s urgent appeal for medical equipment and protective gear, China publicly committed to sending 1,000 ventilators, two million masks, 100,000 respirators, 20,000 protective suits, and 50,000 test kits. China has also dispatched medical teams and 250,000 masks to Iran and sent supplies to Serbia, whose president dismissed European solidarity as “a fairy tale” and proclaimed that “the only country that can help us is China.” Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma has promised to send large quantities of testing kits and masks to the United States, as well as 20,000 test kits and 100,000 masks to each of Africa’s 54 countries.
北京政府在物资援助方面的优势在于,世界上大部分对抗新冠病毒所依赖的物资都是中国制造的。它已经是口罩的主要生产商,现在,通过战争式的工业动员,它促进了口罩达到十倍的生产量,让他们有足够的能力向全世界供应口罩。中国也大概生产了一半防护工作者所需的N95口罩(它迫使外国工厂在中国制造,并直接卖给政府),以医疗设备的形式提供了另一项外交政策工具。另外,抗生素对于解决COVID-19引起的继发感染至关重要,而中国可以生产绝大多数制造抗生素必不可少的活性药物成分。
Beijing’s edge in material assistance is enhanced by the simple fact that much of what the world depends on to fight the coronavirus is made in China. It was already the major producer of surgical masks; now, through wartime-like industrial mobilization, it has boosted production of masks more than tenfold, giving it the capacity to provide them to the world. China also produces roughly half of the N95 respirators critical for protecting health workers (it has forced foreign factories in China to make them and then sell them directly to the government), giving it another foreign policy tool in the form of medical equipment. Meanwhile, antibiotics are critical for addressing emerging secondary infections from COVID-19, and China produces the vast majority of active pharmaceutical ingredients necessary to make them.
相比之下,美国缺乏满足自身许多需求的供应和生产能力,更不用说为病毒危及的其他地区提供援助。事实很严峻。美国的国家战略储备,即国家的关键医疗用品储备,据说仅占应对病毒所需口罩量的百分之一,呼吸机量的百分之十。其余则不得不通过来自中国的进口或迅速发展的国内制造业弥补。同样,中国在美国抗生素市场的份额超过95%,且绝大多数都不是用来应对危机的,然而美国的危机不仅仅限于物资问题。在2014-15年埃博拉病毒危机时期,美国集结领导数十个国家的联盟,积极应对该病蔓延。而到目前为止,特朗普政府一直回避去这样领导应对冠状病毒,甚至不去与盟国协调。例如,华府在对欧洲实行旅行禁令之前,并未事先通知其欧洲盟友。
The United States, by contrast, lacks the supply and capacity to meet many of its own demands, let alone to provide aid in crisis zones elsewhere. The picture is grim. The U.S. Strategic National Stockpile, the nation’s reserve of critical medical supplies, is believed to have only one percent of the masks and respirators and perhaps ten percent of the ventilators needed to deal with the pandemic. The rest will have to be made up with imports from China or rapidly increased domestic manufacturing. Similarly, China’s share of the U.S. antibiotics market is more than 95 percent, and most of the ingredients cannot be Crisis response, however, is not only about material goods. During the 2014–15 Ebola crisis, the United States assembled and led a coalition of dozens of countries to counter the spread of the disease. The Trump administration has so far shunned a similar leadership effort to respond to the coronavirus. Even coordination with allies has been lacking. Washington appears, for example, not to have given its European allies any prior notice before instituting a ban on travel from Europe.
相比之下,中国采取了强有力的外交活动,通过视频会议召集了数十个国家和数百名政府官员,分享有关新冠病毒的数据信息,以及中国在抗疫方面的经验。与中国之前的许多外交活动一样,中国主要是通过地区层面或地区机构与他国进行对话。这些会议包括通过“17+1”合作、与中欧和东欧国家、上海合作组织秘书处以及与十个太平洋岛国和其它非洲、欧洲和亚洲集团的交流。中国正在努力宣传这些举措。事实上,在面向国外的宣传机构的头版上,每一篇报道都在宣传中国帮助不同国家提供物资和信息援助的努力,同时强调了北京政府做法的优势。
Like much of China’s diplomacy, these convening efforts are largely conducted at the regional level or through regional bodies. They include calls with central and eastern European states through the “17 + 1” mechanism, with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s secretariat, with ten Pacific Island states, and with other groupings across Africa, Europe, and Asia. And China is working hard to publicize such initiatives. Virtually every story on the front page of its foreign-facing propaganda organs advertises China’s efforts to help different countries with goods and information while underscoring the superiority of Beijing’s approach.
注1 -「苏伊士运河危机」:1956年,英法为夺得苏伊士运河的控制权,与以色列联合,对埃及发动的军事行动。英法以三国的行动遭到国际社会的普遍指责。美苏两国均介入此事件,并对三国施加压力。在强大的国际压力下英法两国被迫接受停火决议,以色列也同意撤出西奈半岛。英法两国的军事冒险最终以失败告终。
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