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美国亚洲政策：过去、现在和未来日网友说

2015-05-20 14:13 我要评论(0)

核心提示：资深高级外交官尼古拉斯·普拉特发表了对美国外交政策的见解。作为一位在职了34年的前美国外交官，在美国处于全球领导地位的顶峰或鼎盛时期时，你曾在美国和整个亚洲都出任过关键外交职位。下一任美国总统将通过怎样的方式来对亚洲建立一个有效的美国政策呢?

U.S. AsiaPolicy: Past, Present and Future

美国亚洲政策：过去、现在和未来

Veteransenior diplomat Nicholas Platt offers insights on U.S. foreign policy.

资深高级外交官尼古拉斯·普拉特发表了对美国外交政策的见解。

TheRebalance authors Mercy Kuo and Angie Tang regularly engage subject-matterexperts, policy practitioners and strategic thinkers across the globe for theirdiverse insights into the U.S. rebalance to Asia. This conversation withAmbassador Nicholas Platt – U.S. ambassador to Zambia (1982-84), Philippines(1987-1991) and Pakistan (1991-1992), and President Emeritus of Asia Society –is the third in "The Rebalance Insight Series."

《再平衡》的作者梅尔西·郭和安琪·唐会定期与全球范围内的主题专家、政策执行者和战略思想家一起分享他们对美国是亚洲重回平衡的不同见解。与尼古拉斯·普拉特和亚洲协会名誉主席的这次谈话，是"再平衡见解系列"的第三次谈话了。尼古拉斯·普拉特在1982-1984年间是美国驻赞比亚大使，在1987-1991年是美国驻菲律宾大使，在1991-1992年是美国驻巴基斯坦大使。

ltaaaTxt

What isyour assessment of the U.S. rebalance to Asia, and how do you see it evolvingin a post-Obama presidency?

你怎样评估美国对亚洲的再平衡政策，以及你是怎样看待奥巴马后期总统任职的？

TheU.S. has played a balancing role in Asia since the end of World War II. From 1945to 1989 we operated as the counterweight to the Soviet Union. With the SovietUnion gone, Asian nations now count on the United States to balance Beijing'srising power. The current increase in the number of actual U.S. military forcesredeployed to Asia is relatively small given our continued globalresponsibilities in Europe and the Middle East. But, our new policy emphasis onAsia is real, reflecting the region's cumulative growth in economic, diplomaticand military power in the region.

自第二次世界大战以来，美国就一直在亚洲发挥平衡作用。从1945年到1989年，我们一直作为苏联的牵制力量。苏联解体后，亚洲国家现在都指望着美国来平衡中国这一不断崛起的力量。考虑到我们要继续在欧洲和中东履行责任，那么在增加部署在亚洲的美国军队数量上，步子还是相对迈得很小的。但是，我们在亚洲强调的新政策是真实的，反映出了该地区在经济，外交和军事力量上的累积增长。

We needto remember that containment and balance are different concepts. China is toobig to contain, and has become a major trading and investment partner of allthe countries in Asia, as well as the United States. U.S. policy should not aimto force our allies to choose sides. But, China's neighbors take comfort in thetraditional balancing role of the U.S., especially when China is behavingaggressively. This dynamic will continue long after the Obama administrationends, and as long as the United States maintains its levels of power.

我们要记住控制和平衡是不同的概念。中国太大了，已不能被包含进来，而且中国也已经成为了亚洲国家，同样还有美国的主要贸易和投资伙伴。美国政策不应该强迫我们的盟友选择站在哪一边。但是，中国的邻国从美国所发挥的传统平衡作用中寻求到了安慰，尤其是当中国表现得非常有侵略性时。在奥巴马政府结束后，这种状态也将长久继续存在，只要美国还保持着它的国力水平。

How wouldyou evaluate current efforts of Washington and Tokyo to bolster the U.S.-Japanalliance? Is there substance beyond the symbolism of Prime Minister ShinzoAbe's recent visit with President Obama?

你将如何评价当前美国和日本为美日联盟所作出的努力？日本首相安倍晋三最近拜访奥巴马总统，除了象征意义以外，还有什么别的实质性意义吗？

ltaaaTxt

Whatthree key characteristics or skills will the next U.S. president need tonavigate U.S.-China relations in terms of global power-sharing?

你认为在全球权利共享的情况下，下一任美国总统需要那三个关键特性或技巧来引导中美关系？

1)Determination to identify and pursue practical joint long term goals; 2)confidence in U.S. strength to share power, while competing successfully inareas where we excel; and 3) patience and sense of history to enable the U.S.and China, in Dr. Henry Kissinger's term, to "co-evolve" in peace.

1)要有决心辨认并追求实际意义上的联合性长期目标;2)要相信美国有能力分享权力,在被驱逐出去的地区也能竞争成功;3)要有耐心和历史感，让美国和中国,用亨利·基辛格博士的术语来说就是,在和平中"共同进化"。

As you observe the current field of U.S. presidential candidates –Democrats and Republicans – how should they articulate a vision for U.S.engagement with Asia on the campaign trail?

当你在观察当前的美国总统候选人时——民主党和共和党——他们在竞选中应该怎样为美国对亚洲的承诺清楚发言？

TheChinese have become accustomed over the years to China bashing and harshrhetoric during U.S. presidential campaigns. They know, however, that realityis the principal policy maker for U.S. governments and that whoever wins, whateverthey may have said [while campaigning], will return to the pragmatic continuityof the policies followed by eight past presidents.

多年来中国人已经习惯了美国总统竞选期间的言辞抨击。不过，他们知道，现实才能决定谁为美国政府工作，不管谁赢了，不管他们在竞选时说了些什么，他们都会回到继前面8位总统之后的务实连续性政策上去。

That said, Beijing will be listening carefully. Candidates whoarticulate an informed, practical approach to U.S. engagement in Asia, stick upfor their principles and their old friends (including Chinese), and espousepeaceful engagement across the region will earn respect in Asia and votes athome. Facilitating China's participation in the new Trans-Pacific Partnershiptrade agreement now under negotiation would be a good example of the approach Idescribe.

据说，中国会听得很仔细。一旦有候选人发表了一个正式的声明，美国将会参与亚洲事项的实际途径，将会坚守他们的原则和老朋友（其中包括中国），并支持该地区的和平承诺，那这将获得整个亚洲的尊敬，赢得国内人民的选票。促进中国在当下正在谈判的新泛太平洋伙伴关系贸易协定中的参与度，将会我所描述的方法中的一个很好的例子。

Mercy A. Kuo is an advisory board member of CHINADebate and waspreviously director of the Southeast Asia Studies and Strategic Asia Programsat the National Bureau of Asian Research. Angie O. Tang is Senior Advisor ofAsia Value Advisors, a leading venture philanthropy advisory firm based in HongKong.

梅尔西·A.·郭现在是中国辩论咨询委员会的成员，之前是国家亚洲研究局东南亚研究和亚洲战略计划的主任。安琪·O.·唐是亚洲价值顾问中的高级顾问，亚洲价值顾问是一家位于香港的领军风险慈善咨询公司。

以下是日本网友评论：

★Well theambassador is right that Obama, Bush II, and Clinton all bashed China to onedegree or another while running for president. They bashed China when it cameto trade, human rights, democracy, Tibet, geopolitics, & Taiwan. Once inoffice sooner or later the bashing ended and they engaged with China, didbusiness with China, and were forced to focus on the Middle East & Europe.

嗯，这位大使说得没错，奥巴马、小布什、和克林顿在竞选总统时都在不同程度上抨击过中国。一遇到贸易、人权、民主、XZ、地缘政治还有台湾这类问题上，他们就抨击中国。一旦当选，这种抨击迟早都会结束，然后他们就会跟中国勾搭在一起，与中国进行贸易，然后被迫要将注意力转向中东和欧洲。

★Policiesevolve and alter as events unfold. The conditions now in Asia are differentthan it was five/ten years ago. The situation was relatively calm as the dragonduring those times was not yet showing its fangs. Peaceful rise was theprevailing belief then.

Nowthings are changing and tension is escalating, thanks to China's irrationalbehavior.

政策的发展和变化都是随着事态的发展而产生的。亚洲当前的局面跟它5/10年前已经不一样了。那时的局面相对平稳，是因为那时候巨龙还未露出它的尖牙。所以当时普遍的信仰就是和平崛起。

现在情况不断在变化，紧张局势也不断升级，这都要感谢中国的非理性行为。

★Stilldreaming US will fight your dirty war with China? US look out for herself andPhilippines will forever by US puppy. This is evidenced by US clearly statingthe Spratlys is not part of her security agreement with PH. US policies arebased on treaties. Presidents do not have power in case you don't know howdemocracy works. Presidents are chief law enforcers and they are only allowedto interpret the law and execute exactly what it says. US presidents do nothave power to step outside the law, so past, present and future US policies areall guided by US laws, treaties, not of which give US authority to help PHdefend her illegal Spratlys possession.

还在做梦想着美国为你们与中国展开一场恶战呢？美国只会担心照顾好她自己，而菲律宾将永远只是美国的宠物。这是有证可寻的，美国清楚地表述过南沙群岛不在她与菲律宾的安全协议之内。美国的政策都是建立在条约之上的。以防你不知道民主体制是怎样运行的，我得告诉你总统是不掌权的。总统是首席执法者，他们能做的只是解释法律，完全按照法律条款来执法。美国总统没有权利跳出法律之外，所以过去，现在，将来美国政策都是受美国法律，和条约引导的，这两者中没有任何一个赋予了美国权利，去帮助菲律宾捍卫其不合法的南沙群岛所有权。

★Okin,Okin, no matter how hard you try you are not convincing anyone (but your kind)with your ridiculous assertions.

好吧，好吧，不管你费了多少力，你那些荒唐可笑的言论都说服不了任何人（除了你的同类）。

★Stopinsulting the intelligence of silent readers. When they see US not supportingPH Spratlys position, they can Think for themselves PH is the real devil in thewhole dispute in the SCS. They are not stupid people. I think they are prettymuch convinced themselves with input from me and others. It is amazing there isnot one Pinoy who dare to take contrarian opinions like me. Are Pinoys likeherds of cattle, all going in one direction? Let merepeat to you in case you don't get it: US behavior is constrained by laws andtreaties, in the past, present and future. If Congress make New law to replaceold ones, so be it. That is how US operates and We in US have to Follow what iscodified into law, not some whimsical thinking of people who Wish US to supportthem with No legal basis. Stop dreaming already. You are on your own, that iswhat US is telling you. Armed up yourself if you want to take on China. US justwatch with folded hands.

不要再侮辱沉默读者们的智慧了。当他们看到美国没有支持菲律宾在南沙群岛的地位时，他们就知道在南海争端上，菲律宾是一个真正的恶魔了。他们并不是愚蠢的人。我认为他们很认同我还有其他一些人的观点。没有一个菲律宾人敢像我一样说出这些反向观点，这还真是神奇。难道所有的菲律宾人就像是牛群一样，都朝着同一个方向的吗？

以防你没看清，我再重复一下吧：我们的行为是受法律和条约约束的，过去是，现在是，将来也是。如果国会制定新法取代旧法，那就取代吧。这就是美国的运作方式，我们这些美国民众们也必须遵循法律，而不是一些人的什么异想天开的想法说有谁希望美国在没有法律依据的情况下也能支持他们。快醒醒吧。你就靠你自己了，这就是美国告诉你的。如果想应对中国，那就赶紧武装好你自己吧。美国只会摊着手在一边看着。

★Things don't happen overnight. As you have clearly pointed out,articles about China's behavior have increased from monthly, to weekly and nowdaily. And these are not true only in the US. It is now a worldwide occurrence.

Eventually, world opinion will metastasize and when it reaches thatpoint, or when China decides beforehand to go back to a peaceful rise, there isno other direction for China to go but down.

事情不是一夜之间发生的。正如你清楚指出的那样，与中国行为有关的文章已经从每月一篇，到每周一篇，现在已经是每日一篇了。而且这并不仅仅只是发生在美国，已经是一个世界性现象了。

最终，世界舆论将会转移，当它达到其临界点，或是中国决定提前走回和平崛起路线，否则中国除了逐渐衰败之外再无其他选择。

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"李云飞阿訇：伊斯兰文明从制度上败给了西方文明" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297321.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1225/1451009743802.png" ["description"]=> string(192) "阿拉伯字母仍是仅次于拉丁字母的世界上使用最广泛的文字系统，伊斯兰文明也是当今人类社会唯一有可能把西方文明取而代之的世界文化体系。" ["time"]=> int(1451009766) } [6]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297292) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(81) "罗思义：中国在毛泽东治下取得了世界史上最伟大的社会成就" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297292.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1225/1451003936527.jpg" ["description"]=> string(210) "我们此前已经比较分析了中国1978年改革开放前后的经济增长情况。尽管如此，如果不了解1949年至1978年改革之前所取得巨大的社会成就，我们仍可能会被误导。" ["time"]=> int(1451003943) } [7]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297318) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(33) "香港特首进京也“跑部”" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297318.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1225/1451008702623.png" ["description"]=> string(179) "按照惯例，香港和澳门的特首每年在12月底时都会来北京向国家领导人汇报全年工作，也就是所谓的“述职”，再通俗点就是年终总结。" ["time"]=> int(1451008771) } [8]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297303) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(42) "虎牙妹：《万万没想到》有点渣" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297303.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1225/1451005863619.png" ["description"]=> string(228) "由于《万万》在网络剧时期累积了不小的人气，电影在点映时取得了相当大的成功，正当人们以为它能取得票房佳绩的时候，《万万》的风评却急转直下，在豆瓣上评分6.1。" ["time"]=> int(1451005740) } [9]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297295) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(72) "马平：作为前工程师，我认为深圳滑坡事故是这么回事" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297295.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1225/1451004166233.jpg" ["description"]=> string(183) "一般来说，规划和建设部门会分别对建设区附近的地质条件进行勘探，分析地质灾害的可能性。对于可能出现滑坡的地段，应该进行治理。" ["time"]=> int(1451004167) } [10]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297290) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(45) "寒竹：中国历史中的社会主义根基" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297290.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1225/1451003740374.jpg" ["description"]=> string(213) "在经济领域进一步深化市场化导向的改革，是当下中国发展的一个重要方向。市场能够最大限度地实现资源的有效配置，从而给经济发展提供强大而持续的动力。" ["time"]=> int(1451003764) } [11]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297248) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(69) "自导自演的和平演变：越南反共总理政治炒作的背后" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297248.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1224/1450949829631.png" ["description"]=> string(303) "越南中央级的党报党刊、军报军刊最近发表大量文章，阐述党的路线和大政方针，同时揭露、批判“国内外各种敌对势力和政治机会主义分子”在十二大前的各种破坏阴谋和伎俩，强调要防范和反对“和平演变”和“颜色革命”。" ["time"]=> int(1450949950) } [12]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297247) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(42) "津巴布韦缘何“相中”人民币？" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297247.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1224/1450948423306.png" ["description"]=> string(140) "中国是津巴布韦的第二大贸易合作伙伴，每年双边贸易额超过10亿元，津巴布韦对人民币的需求日趋强烈。" ["time"]=> int(1450948518) } [13]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297246) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(33) "台湾选举提前结束了吗？" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297246.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1224/1450946885538.jpg" ["description"]=> string(108) "本来选战就是中间选民的争夺战，这一次，国民党要找回自己的基本盘，怎么了？" ["time"]=> int(1450946760) } [14]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297058) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(90) "清华博士：台湾是“杀出来的奴才，打出来的顺民，惯出来的孽种”" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297058.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1223/1450833056693.png" ["description"]=> string(297) "一直以来，中国政府奉行对台让利政策，对台湾的开放程度远远超过台湾对大陆的开放程度，就已在太阳花运动中被否定的“贸服协定”为例，对大陆的要求几乎全部是高于WTO中的规定，而对台湾却几乎全部是低于WTO的规定。" ["time"]=> int(1450833467) } [15]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297067) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(60) "金庸：揭中国人不擅长打仗为何却能赢的真相" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297067.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1223/1450834511242.jpg" ["description"]=> string(243) "现在许多西方学者都认为，地球就这样大了，无止境地追求、扩充，是不可能的，也是不可取的。今後只能接受中国的哲学，要平衡、要和谐，民族与民族之间要相互协作，避免战争。" ["time"]=> int(1450834575) } }

朱维群：达赖与暴力恐怖主义的关系能撇清吗