外媒论坛：如果中国分成15小国

What will China do if the president seeks to divide the country into 15 small states andthen goes to live in Europe?

Like Gorbachev.

如果中国的领导人想把国家分成15个小国，然后搬去欧洲定居，中国人会作何反应？

就像戈尔巴乔夫那样。

以下是来自美国网友评论：

★There is no comparison with the Soviet Union which was a grouping of fifteen different republics which were held together only through the tight control of Moscow. Moreover the Union was not an economically successful one so the constituent states were chafing at the bit and when Gorbachev fumbled the reins the horses bolted so to speak.

苏联是由15个不同的加盟共和国构成的，靠莫斯科的强力控制才聚在一起，所以完全没有可比性。更重要的是，苏联在经济上不成功，因此加盟国多少都有些不满，当戈尔巴乔夫手忙脚乱地拽着缰绳的时候，群马立即就脱缰了。

★The concept of China as a single nation, covering a wide area of east Asia has been part of Chinese self image and culture for over two thousand years. 

而中国作为一个覆盖东亚广袤的土地的单一国家的概念，成为中国文化自我认知的一部分已经两千多年了。

★Although holding together the constituent parts is not easy, and reuniting them after a prolonged period of decay is an even more Herculean task, any one who was responsible for the dissolution of the Republic would be unlikely to live in peace anywhere.

虽然把各部分团结在一起并不容易，经历长时间的衰退后把他们统一起来更是一个赫拉克利斯式的艰巨任务，但是任何造成共和国解体的人无论在何地都不可能安枕无忧

★But Gorbachev can live in peace though dissolution of union will cause millions of death from civil wars and extreme poverty.

但是戈尔巴乔夫依然安然无恙，虽然苏联解体导致了数以百万计的内战死亡以及极度的贫困。

★It was Stalin who put the right of secession in the USSR constitution; you can blame him. China has never had it.

是斯大林把退出苏联的权利放进了苏联宪法，你可以怪罪他。中国宪法从来就没有这一条。

★Where did you find this "fact"? The right of secession in the USSR constitution was added by Lenin, in that time Stalin was oppose such a strange idea though later he cutted out from Russia 2 additional republics: Kazakhstan and Karelo-Finnish republic.

I personally blame both of them and another leaders of bolshevik, but in fact Lenin was first.

China has never had a right of secession in her constitution, but do you really think that in case of rising to power chinese Gorbachev it would be impotant? Even here in quora there are a lot of Westerners writing about right of secession for Tibet,Hong Kong, Xinjiang and so on.

你从哪里得到这一“事实”的？退出苏联的权利是列宁加进去的，那时候斯大林极力反对这一古怪的想法，虽然他后来把哈萨克斯坦和卡累利阿-芬兰共和国从俄罗斯划出去了。 我个人认为他们两个都有责任，包括布尔什维克党的其他领导人，但实际上是列宁开了先例。 中国宪法里没有退出权，但你真的认为如果中国的戈尔巴乔夫当权了，那很重要吗？即使是在Quora这儿，也有很多西方人在发表XZ、香港、新疆等等地区的退出权的看法。

Zhang Liyu, 中国有礼仪之大故称夏，有服章之美谓之华。 4 upvotes by Wing Chau, Mikhail Kotykhov, Pavel Wolkow, (more) Admittedly, 「省籍」(province of origin) or 「地方主义」(localism) always poses a challenge for the Central government. 

★But most Chinese people prefer the idea of 「大一统」(the great unification). You know, the uniform legal framework, a common market and a common culture, a single currency and unified monetary policy… unification brings many advantages, there is an old Chinese saying:「天下大事，合久必分，分久必合」(The world important matter closes long divide surely, cent is long close.)

My conclusion: It will never happen. No one wants to see that happening.

必须得承认，省籍或者说地方主义始终是中央政府的一大挑战。 但是大多数中国人更倾向于大一统的理念。你知道，统一的法律架构，共同的市场，共同的文化，单一的流通货币，以及统一的金融政策……统一带来了很多优势。中国有句老话叫“天下大事（势），合久必分，分久必合”。 我的结论：不可能发生这种情况，没人想看到这种事发生。

★I hope so but the traitor at the top could do a lot of harm.

我希望如此，但是身居高位的叛徒可以造成很大的破坏。

★This is implausible. Gorbachev, it should be noted, never wanted to divide the Soviet Union. His country fell apart, rather against his will, because multiple political and economic crises coincided to make continued unity apparently not a good idea.

The Soviet Union's experiences are not likely to map onto China's, at least not here. Most notably, China is not divided into 15 autonomous republics with national identities in the making and the right to secede. China is a much more homogeneous country than that. More importantly, China is a country that is more functional than the Soviet Union ever was, with an economy that generally works reasonably well.

If China had a Gorbachev-type reformer at the top, the dissolution of the Chinese state seems unlikely to me. I think that there's a reasonable chance that a democratic transition could actually be pulled off, without the country coming apart.

这种事不可能发生。戈尔巴乔夫从来没想过分裂苏联。他的国家的分裂违背了他的意愿，是因为政治经济上接二连三的危机导致了继续维持统一不再是一个好办法。 苏联的经历不太可能一一投射到中国身上，至少不是在这方面。最显而易见的是，中国并没有分成15个正在形成国族认同并拥有退出权的自治共和国。中国是一个更加同质化的国家。更重要的是，中国作为一个比曾经的苏联运转更良好的国家，经济总的来说是很好的。 如果中国的领导人是一个戈尔巴乔夫式的改革家，我依然认为中国的解体是不可能发生的。民主化的转型可能可以顺利地过渡，而国家不会分裂。

★As far as I know western supporters of Tibet,Xinjiang, Taiwan and Hong Kong have other belief than you about future of some regions of PRC but you noticed a lot of important differences between China and USSR. I want to add one more, there are only Han people in the standing Committee of the Politburo in CPC, no one of minorities of China was ever allowed to join to this ruling body. Quite the contrary in USSR minorities always have more seats in the Politburo than russians. In first politburo of C.P.S.U. there was only one russian(Bubnov) and he has not any power at all. P.S. And you are not right about Gorbachev. Sorry but It's true if you want I can explain.

据我所知XZ新疆台湾香港的西方支持者对PRC的一些区域有与你不同的想法，但是你注意到中国和苏联之间有很大的不同。我想再加一条，中国GCD的政治局常委全是汉人，没有一个少数民族有机会进入这个领导核心。而苏联的少数族裔在政治局里总是有比俄罗斯人更多的席位。在苏共的第一届政治局中只有一个俄罗斯人（Bubnov），而他没有任何实权。 P.S. 你对戈尔巴乔夫的看法也不对，如果你希望我解释一下的话。

★Please do explain.

请务必解释一下。

★He will be expelled before he knows it. China has been a unified state for at least 2000 years. USSR never existed in its shape until like what, 200 years ago?

Tibet or Xinjiang might seek independence (or not, considering the pro government population there), but I can't imaging the rest of China splitting up. They have a single, unified identity. It is just not going to happen.

在他得逞之前就会被驱逐的。中国作为一个统一的国家已经至少2000年了。苏联这么大的领土规模在两百年前根本不存在。 新疆和XZ或许会谋求独立（也不一定，考虑到当地支持政府的人口），但我无法想象中国剩下的地区分裂。他们拥有统一的自我认同。这种情况不可能发生。

★ I hope you are right but Russian state has a long history too it did not help us.

我希望你是对的。但是俄罗斯国也有很长的历史，但那并没有帮上什么忙。

★ this is really a non-sense question.

no president in China will do this.

这个问题简直无理取闹。 没有中国领导人会做出这样的事情。

★ But every time when new generation of leaders come to power in China western newspapers write that new leader is a Chinese Gorbachev.

但是每当中国新一代领导人上台，西方报纸总会说他是中国的戈尔巴乔夫。

★western media are just fooling and brainwashing their ppl, ignore those idiots.

西方媒体只是在愚弄读者，给他们洗脑，别理那些白痴。

★I hope you are right. Thx for answer.

我希望你是对的。谢谢回答。

★(more) haha  that's an interesting question, I'll think about it, but i have a assumption that we Chinese will still live our daily lives,but  if a war happens, i mean if, we will get united to rise up against the invaders. ∩__∩

哈哈，这个问题很有趣。我觉得中国人还会照常过日子，但如果发生了战争，我是说如果，我们会团结起来抵御入侵者的。

★russian army was much stronger but it did not help at all because it obeytraitor's orders

俄罗斯的军队曾经更强大，但根本于事无补，因为它遵从叛徒的命令。

★i think that's the difference between two countries, no offence, in China, country in some ways can mean home, and we have unified national culture throughout the whole Chinese history.the power of culture is very enormous, it protected China during the wars and help China gained victory .the best way to perish a nation is to perish its culture.i learned this sentance from my history class.during world war two, Japanese usedto forbid Chinese saying our own language (Chinese )and forced us to learn Japanese, in order to perish our culture, but obviously, this didn't work. so, i was wondering whether this would become true that the president divides our country into small countries and himself lives in Europe.again. no offence∩__∩

我认为这是两个国家的不同，恕我冒昧，在中国，国家在某种程度上意味着家，而中国的历史带给了我们统一的民族文化。文化的力量是十分强大的，它在战争中保护了中国，帮助中国取得了胜利。欲灭其国，先灭其文化。我从历史课上学到了这句话。在二战期间，日本人曾经禁止我们说汉语，逼迫我们学日语，就是为了抹杀我们的文化。但是显然，这并没有起到作用。因此我很怀疑标题描述的情况是否会发生。

★ Yes I think that is very important that China is home for chinese people, and they must save this home for themselves and their children. But I think China could be divided too in 1989 imho.

是的，中国是中国人的家，他们为了他们自己和他们的孩子必须保护家园。但是我认为中国在1989年是有可能被分裂的，大笑。

★*^▁^*but China is still China, now ～

但是中国现在还是中国。

★ is good for china and han people )

是的，这对中国和汉人都好。

★maybe" is good for the whole Chinese nation" is better ～∩__∩

或许说“对整个中华民族都好”更恰当。

★I do not think so. As russian I am not so naive and I am absolutely sure if and after dissolution some small nation(Uyghur people for example) would gladly have killed or expelled Hans like russians were killed or expelled in many regions of former USSR.

我并不这样认为。作为俄罗斯人，我并不天真，我敢肯定，如果解体真的发生，一些小民族（例如维吾尔族）会很高兴地杀光或者驱逐汉人，就像俄罗斯人在前苏联的一些地区遭遇的那样。

★those riots only happened in the south part of Xinjiang province ,and some members who took part in those riot movements didn't even know why they do this kind of things, some of them did it for money and some were just being used.and i have to admit that some leaders of  minorities really want to devide China for their own advantages, but that only a small part of the whole population i think, what is the most important thing for normal people? i think it's their life, no one would want to break their current happy life or lose their lives just for some  untouchable , invisible political aims. at present, i think chinese people are content with their lives*^▁^*

那些暴徒只是在南疆行凶，而且部分参与者甚至都不明白为什么会参与这一的行动，有一些是为了钱财，有一些是被利用了。我不得不承认，有一些少数民族的领导人是真的想为了他们自己的利益分裂中国，但是他们只是总人口中的少数。对于普通人来说最重要的是什么？我认为是他们的生活，没有人想为了一些遥不可及的、虚幻的政治目标破坏他们现在的幸福生活或者失去生命。当下，我认为中国人对他们的生活是满意的。

★ riots are small because separatists are afraid of police and PLA but if national minorities have all power they do another way.There are the same things everywhere in Algeria killed French, in former soviet republics killed russians and if Tibet for instance would become independent they start to kill and expel hans.

暴徒之所以只是小部分，是因为分离主义分子害怕警察和PLA，但如果少数民族的民族主义分子当权，他们会反其道而行之。相同的事情到处都在发生，法国人在阿尔及利亚被杀，俄罗斯人在前苏联国家被杀，如果XZ独立，他们会屠杀和驱逐汉人。

★but how do they become strong and encourage the rest of them to join their riot movements, since most of minorities feel content with their current life?

但是现在大多数少数民族对他们现在生活很满意，那些分裂分子现在变强了吗，鼓励他们的同族加入恐暴活动了吗？

★It is not so difficult as you can think. There a lot of ways to do it. You read about not only in historical books but in newspapers too. There are a lot of examples of riots in recent days.

这一切要发生并没有那么难。有很多方法可以做到。你不能只看历史书，也该看看报纸。最近这段时间有很多恐暴活动。

★ok, i think I'll follow you and then i can send you discussing this again another time, i have to enrich my knowledge about this kind of issue.

好吧，我下次再跟你谈这个话题。我关于这个问题我需要补充更多的知识。

★good luck. I think Libya or Ukrain are good examples. there have normal life but small amount of people started the revolution and now they have civil wars.

祝你好运，我认为利比亚或者乌克兰是好例子。他们本来过着正常的生活，但是一小部分人发动了革命，现在他们都陷入了内战。

★ i think there are other parties backup this kind of activities.

我认为是因为有别的党派支持着这样的活动。

★of course always there are other parties, other countries and so on. And we even know these countries and parties )))

当然，总是会有别的党派，别的国家之类的。而且我们甚至都知道那些国家和党派是谁。

★yes, that's true. dirty politics.......i think.

没错。政治真是肮脏，我觉得。

★very dirty and very cruel

很肮脏，很残酷。

★It's the CCP administrate China, not just the president---a single person. The Politburo Standing Committee consisted of seven people, who are representing seven departments of China. It's impossible that all of the seven people are deciding to divide the country at the same time.

是CCP在治理中国，不只是总统一个人。政治局常委由七个人构成，代表了中国的七个部门。七个人同时决定分裂国家是不可能的。

★I hope so but Gorbachev could do it easily.

我希望如此，但是戈尔巴乔夫轻而易举就做到了。

★Chinese people are stick with the Great Unification notion throught the history. When we united as one, the country would be stable and prosperous. When we fell apart, there would be a lot of deadly wars and inner conflicts. In addition, the painful experience of losing territories and being colonized or semi-colonized by foreign powers is still fresh in Chinese people's memory. Gorbachev can fool Soviet Russia once, but a separatist can never become a CCP leader, let alone seven.

中国人对历史中形成的大一统的观念很执着。当我们团结如一，国家就会稳定繁荣。当国家分裂，就会有许多致命的战争和内斗。此外，丧失领土、被外国势力殖民、半殖民的痛苦经历在中国人的记忆里依然鲜活。戈尔巴乔夫可以愚弄苏俄一次，但是一个分离主义者不可能成为CCP的领导人，更不要说七个人了。

★I hope you are right and the Hans understand that the collapse of the state is a great misfortune for all people. Do not let fool you.

Long live for China.

我希望你是对的。汉人知道国家的覆灭对所有的民族都是不幸，别让那些人愚弄了你们。 中国万岁。

★Not just the Hans. Only 2 or 3 in 55 minorities that have some separatism issue to deal with, and I think it can be fixed as time goes on.

并不只是汉人。在55个少数民族里面只有两三个有分离主义的问题，而且我认为随着时间它们都会被解决的。

★ Hans is a core and a heart of the China. I do not think that there is needing to be embarrassed to talk about it.

汉人是中国的主体和核心。我认为在谈论这个问题的时候不需要尴尬。

★Thank you for your understanding and blessing. The collapse of Soviet Union does teach Chinese people and CCP an unforgotable lesson. Both of us people could a lot from it. Wish you all the best.

谢谢你的理解和祝福。苏联的覆灭给中国人和CCP难忘的教训。我们两个国家的人民都应该从中学到很多。祝好。

★ Very sad to read that this was a lesson that we could give for chinese.

Sad but true.

Tell me what ordinary people think about the party and China's future. It would be interesting.

当读到说我们给中国人的是教训的时候，我非常难过。 告诉我普通人怎么看待CCP和中国的未来。一定会很有趣。