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为什么你不能相信有关中国的所有糟糕事

2014-11-17 13:37 我要评论(0)

关键词:中国 有关

核心提示:对于中国经济风险的担忧——从鬼城到经济增速的放缓——可能会让市场观察者们在晚上睡不着觉,但有一名分析家认为这些棘手的问题是人们保持乐观的理由。

Whyyou can't believe all the bad stuff about China

为什么你不能相信有关中国的所有糟糕事

Worriesover China's economic risks - from ghost towns to slowing growth - may keepmarket watchers up at night, but at least one analyst believes many of thebugbears are reasons to be bullish. 

对于中国经济风险的担忧——从鬼城到经济增速的放缓——可能会让市场观察者们在晚上睡不着觉,但有一名分析家认为这些棘手的问题是人们保持乐观的理由。

"Thesingle greatest aspect of conventional wisdom about China today that we don'tunderstand is the near-universal concern about under-utilized infrastructure...ghost cities, empty airports, and deserted highways," Bernstein Researchsaid in a note dated Tuesday. 

“如今中国传统智慧中最让我们感到不解的一个地方在于其众多未被利用的基础设施:鬼城,空荡荡的机场,以及荒废的公路,”伯恩斯坦研究公司周二说道。

But atthe beginning of their life, infrastructure assets should be poorly utilized,the report noted. 

但是在基础设施建成的初期,不被充分利用是一种正常现象,该公司的报告称。

"Nosensible economic planner approves, no sensible banker finances and no sensiblebuilder constructs Just-in-Time infrastructure," Bernstein said. "Ona 30-year view of fixed asset investment, low levels of utilization (and poorROIC) in the early years is a necessary part of the process." 

“没有明智的经济规划者,没有明智的银行家,没有明智的建筑商会去建造刚好够用的基础设施的,”伯恩斯坦公司说道。“如果以30年的时间来看固定资产投资,最初几年的的低利用率和资产回报率是整个过程的一个必要组成部分。”

Indeed,with that burst of infrastructure investment now ending, China's economicgrowth rate is likely to slow, especially as the mainland rebalances towardservices, Bernstein said. 

确实如此,随着资产投资浪潮的结束,中国经济增速可能会下降,特别是大陆现在把重点转移到服务业的情况下,伯恩斯坦说。

"Along-term 7 percent GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate in China isunnecessary, inadvisable and - given the return on incremental capital today inChina - unlikely to be achieved," it said, forecasting GDP would grow at acompound annual rate of "just under" 5 percent through 2020. 

“中国长期7%的GDP增速是不必要的,不明智的,而且以今天中国的增加资本回报率来看也是不可能保持的,”该报告还预测说中国GDP年增长在2020年将达到5%以下。

"Wesee growth coming largely from services and from the 'peace dividend' from acombination of lower investment, rising utilization on existing infrastructureand lower energy and commodity prices," it said. "It is not clear tous why allowing GDP growth to drop 100bps annually in coming years whilehousehold income and consumption growth accelerate would be anything butpositive." 

“我们估计主要的增长将来自服务业以及来自低投资、更多利用现有基础设施和低能源和食品价格综合形成的‘和平红利’。未来几年,GDP增速放缓,而家庭收入和消费增速加快,我们觉得这是好事。”

Bernsteinis also skeptical of claims that China risks a financial crisis from anyrepeatedly cited fears of a collapsing property market, extravagant state-ownedenterprises, wasteful investment or sudden financial liberalization. 

该公司也对人们认为中国会发生金融危机的担忧表示怀疑,这些担忧包括房地产市场崩溃,奢侈浪费的国有企业,投资浪费,以及突然间的金融自由化。

"Thecurrent leadership continues to confound expectations by doing pretty much theright thing," Bernstein said, adding it believes there is little urgencyto complete financial liberalization, noting that in many economies, itactually heralds a crisis.

“目前的领导层虽然挫败了人们的期望,但是他们的做法是正确的,”该公司还认为没有必要马上进行金融自由化,因为在很多国家中,金融自由化反而会导致危机的出现。

"Thefact that most Chinese debt is borrowed by Chinese SOEs from Chinese SOEs isone of the strengths of the system," it said. 

“中国的优势之一在于大多数的中国债务都是发生于国企之间,”

To besure, many analysts still see China's economy as rife with risks. 

然而,很多分析家还是认为中国经济充满危机。

It's"worse than scary," Richard Jerram, chief economist at Bank ofSingapore, told CNBC on Monday, referring to a speech by China President XiJinping at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit in Beijing Sunday. 

中国的经济风险“比可怕还要糟糕”,新加坡银行首席经济学家Richard Jerram对媒体说,他所指的是Xi在APEC上所讲的一句话。

"Thereare indeed risks, but it's not so scary," Xi said. 

“确实存在风险,但是并不可怕,”习说。

ButJerram is unconvinced. 

但是Richard Jerram并不被习所说服。

"TheIMF (International Monetary Fund) rule of thumb is if your credit-to-GDP ratiogoes up 40 percentage points in three years, the probability is you've got a baddebt crisis. China's is up 75 percent in five years, so it's faster and it'slonger and it's a very high probability they've got a massive amount of baddebts buried in the system," Jerram said. 

“国际货币基金组织的经验法则是如果一个国家的信贷对比GDP比率在三年内上涨了40%,那么就存在坏帐危机的可能性。而中国在5年内上涨了75%,所以上升速度更快,时间也更长,所以中国的金融系统中极有可能存在着大量的坏帐。”

Withcredit still growing faster than GDP, it's likely difficult to find productiveinvestments, Jerram said. 

而当前中国的信贷增速依然比GDP增速快,所以要找到生产性投资是不容易的,他说。

"Probablythey're just writing new bad debts even as they're trying to work through theold bad loans." 

“可能的情况是他们在还没解决旧的坏帐的情况下又开始增加新的坏帐了。”

评论翻译

以下为美国网友评论:

1、Drm 6hours ago I justreturned from living in China. I lived in Kunming, in the YunnanProvince...which is considered China's gateway to Southeast Asia. I went thereto consult and to do some business research of my own. After being immersed inthe real society there, I got some advice for my fellow American businessmen:Stop obsessing on China's problems and start worrying about how we will competein the world!

No matter where China goes, it will have no bearing on our competitiveness.There are lots of countries out there who will easily step into any voidcreated by China. In fact, China is now beginning to transition its economyfrom mainly low cost manufacturing to more innovative industries. It is rapidlyoutsourcing its own manufacturing to even cheaper labor markets in Asia andAfrica. Yeah, they are going to have ups and downs, but just like the U.S. andEurope, they are going to recover. (In fact, the Chinese people will probablybe better prepared to weather the economic storms, than their Western counterparts.They've had far more practice.)

In the meantime, if we don't stop worrying about other peoples' problems, weare going to miss an opportunity to become resurgent in manufacturing and othertech industries. The fact is that China is now struggling with rising laborcosts and inflation, just like the rest of the world. At the same time, theircosts for raw materials and energy is equal to the rest of the world. It alladds up to make off-shoring manufacturing to China far less attractive than itwas. In my own industry, lots of manufacturers are starting to bring their workback the U.S..

The bottom line is that all this commentary on what China is doing makes peoplehere complacent. We need to work on our own strategies for winning, rather thanhoping our global competitors fail. 

我刚刚从中国回来,我居住在昆明,昆明是中国前往东南亚的关口。我去那里是为了做一些咨询并为自己做一下商业调查。在深入当地社会后,我想给我的美国商人同胞们一些建议:不要为中国瞎操心了,我们应该关心的是如何提高自己的全球竞争力!! 不管中国去往何方,都不会对我们的竞争力产生什么影响。有很多国家会去填补中国所创造出来的真空。实际上,中国现在正开始将经济从低端的制造业向更加创意性的行业转变。中国加快的将自己的制造业外包到非洲和亚洲更加劳动力廉价的市场中去。是的,中国的经济起起伏伏,但就像美欧那样,他们最终会恢复过来的。实际上,比起西方人,中国人可能能更好的应对经济风暴,因为他们进行了更多的实践和练习) 同时,如果我们再不停止为他人担忧的话,我们将失去在制造业和其他技术领域复兴的机会。中国现在面临劳动力成本增加和通货膨胀问题,像世界其他地方一样。所以将制造业外包到中国已经不像以前那么具有吸引力。在我自己所在的行业,许多制造商已经开始将生产业务带回到美国。 所以,归根究底,我们的媒体所写的有关中国的文章让我们美国人变得自满。我们应该为自己的胜利制定好战略,而不是一味的期望我们的全球竞争者失败。

2、WongforU5 hours ago Chinacontinues to go further and further into bank debt Abyss. China is makingpromises and deals it can not back up with the slowing and faltering Chineseeconomy. These deals range from 4 billion to 400 billion. Companies and therich are leaving China. China had a good run with its economy. It is almostover and soon things will level off and hopefully they will be able to feedtheir people and care for the aging population of China that is in the nearfuture. China has to spend billions to fight many years of pollution also. Gladto hear that the USA economy is picking up; gas is coming down; jobs are comingback to America and things are looking much 

brighter for our future. 

中国将继续深陷银行债务深渊。中国在不断的做出承诺和协议,可是在中国经济放缓的情况下,根本没法对这些承诺和协议做出支持。这些协议金额从40亿到4000亿不等。企业和富人现在正离开中国。中国经济确实好过,但已经到头了,很快经济发张将趋于平稳,希望他们有能力喂饱自己的人民以及即将到来的人口老龄化问题。中国还要花费巨资来与多年的污染作斗争。很高兴看到美国的经济在复苏,而且汽油价格在下降,就业机会也渐渐回到美国,我们的未来似乎要比中国人的未来好多了。

3、M 7 hoursago Theproblem is not lower growth. The problem is the huge section of the economythat is based on non performing debt spending on infrastructure. They can'tsimply stop building infrastructure or they will lose 30% of their economy.They also can't keep building infrastructure as they are already over 300% ofGDP debt. While it is true that America is currently sitting at about 370% ofGDP, it's non-performing debt is a relatively small portion of that debt whilein China is appears to be the majority of their debt. 

Between 2008 and 20014, China's debt to GDP ratio has doubled. It has increasedby roughly 27% of GDP per year while GDP growth average roughly 8% of GDP peryear. This is not sustainable. However, China also can't stop doing it. Justthis month, the government took on another 4% of GDP in debt in an attempt to stimulatetheir slowing economy.

China is in a debt trap. They chose to get in to a debt trap rather than sufferlike the rest of the global economy in 2008. 

问题不在于低增长,而在于中国经济很大一大部分都依赖于用于基础建设的不良债务。而且中国不能停止基础建设,否则中国经济将会损失30%。而且中国也不能一直进行基础建设,因为债务对GDP比率已经超过了300%。虽然美国现在的债务对GDP比率是370%,但是不良债务所占比例相对较小,而中国的债务中不良债务似乎占了大部分的比例。 2008年到2014年间,中国债务对GDP比率翻了一番。平均每年增长27%,而期间每年的GDP增长平均只有8%。所以这是不可持续的。然而,中国不能停止这么做。就在本月,中国政府为了刺激经济,又增加了4%的GDP债务。 所以中国目前正陷在债务陷阱中。他们宁愿陷入债务陷阱,也不愿像其他国家那样在2008年遭受金融危机。

4、Grizzly21 minutes ago Chinais largest economy in the World...

& USA has largest debt in history... $17,5 Trillion... 

中国是世界上最大的经济体。。 而美国拥有历史上最大规模的债务,达17.5万亿。。。。

5、RogerH 13 minutes ago "Peacedividend" and "China" don't belong in the same sentence,article, or brain. China has nothing but military dominance on their mind. It'snice we keep financing them with our dollars, just like it's nice to see theMiddle East awash in our cash. 

“和平红利”和“中国”怎么能出现在同一个句子中呢。中国的脑袋中只想通过军事来获取统治地位。而我们却一直使用美元来资助他们,就像中东国家拥有大量美元一样。

6、TheTruthHurts6 hours ago Thebest aspect of the Chinese government is that they do not comment or bad mouthother countries. They do not want to change the other countries. Theyconcentrate on their own people. Too bad the U.S. has nothing better to do thanto continually try to change other governments and cultures. 

中国政府最好的地方在于他们不会对其他国家说闲话或者批评其他国家。他们没打算改变其他国家。把注意力都放在自己人民身上。可美国没其他更好的事情可做,就想一味的改变其他国家的政府和文化。

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"马平:作为前工程师,我认为深圳滑坡事故是这么回事" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297295.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1225/1451004166233.jpg" ["description"]=> string(183) "一般来说,规划和建设部门会分别对建设区附近的地质条件进行勘探,分析地质灾害的可能性。对于可能出现滑坡的地段,应该进行治理。" ["time"]=> int(1451004167) } [10]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297290) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(45) "寒竹:中国历史中的社会主义根基" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297290.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1225/1451003740374.jpg" ["description"]=> string(213) "在经济领域进一步深化市场化导向的改革,是当下中国发展的一个重要方向。市场能够最大限度地实现资源的有效配置,从而给经济发展提供强大而持续的动力。" ["time"]=> int(1451003764) } [11]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297248) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(69) "自导自演的和平演变:越南反共总理政治炒作的背后" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297248.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1224/1450949829631.png" ["description"]=> string(303) "越南中央级的党报党刊、军报军刊最近发表大量文章,阐述党的路线和大政方针,同时揭露、批判“国内外各种敌对势力和政治机会主义分子”在十二大前的各种破坏阴谋和伎俩,强调要防范和反对“和平演变”和“颜色革命”。" ["time"]=> int(1450949950) } [12]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297247) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(42) "津巴布韦缘何“相中”人民币?" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297247.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1224/1450948423306.png" ["description"]=> string(140) "中国是津巴布韦的第二大贸易合作伙伴,每年双边贸易额超过10亿元,津巴布韦对人民币的需求日趋强烈。" ["time"]=> int(1450948518) } [13]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297246) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(33) "台湾选举提前结束了吗?" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297246.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1224/1450946885538.jpg" ["description"]=> string(108) "本来选战就是中间选民的争夺战,这一次,国民党要找回自己的基本盘,怎么了?" ["time"]=> int(1450946760) } [14]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297058) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(90) "清华博士:台湾是“杀出来的奴才,打出来的顺民,惯出来的孽种”" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297058.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1223/1450833056693.png" ["description"]=> string(297) "一直以来,中国政府奉行对台让利政策,对台湾的开放程度远远超过台湾对大陆的开放程度,就已在太阳花运动中被否定的“贸服协定”为例,对大陆的要求几乎全部是高于WTO中的规定,而对台湾却几乎全部是低于WTO的规定。" ["time"]=> int(1450833467) } [15]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297067) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(60) "金庸:揭中国人不擅长打仗为何却能赢的真相" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297067.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1223/1450834511242.jpg" ["description"]=> string(243) "现在许多西方学者都认为,地球就这样大了,无止境地追求、扩充,是不可能的,也是不可取的。今後只能接受中国的哲学,要平衡、要和谐,民族与民族之间要相互协作,避免战争。" ["time"]=> int(1450834575) } }

朱维群:达赖与暴力恐怖主义的关系能撇清吗

1深得法国精髓:民众在美高官住宅前倾倒粪便
2乌国安国防秘书长侮辱中国特别代表被解雇
3乌克兰保密局头目坦言对俄政治人物暗杀负责
4泽连斯基前顾问不慎说出与莫斯科恐袭的关联
5加州少女闯警局夺枪!扭打中把自己给崩了
6BBC记者设套遭RT总编辑遭当面打脸
7索纳丽丨你美国人买不起电动汽车,这就是原
8世贸组织裁决中方胜诉 澳大利亚:接受裁决
9借口“国家安全”,英美瞄准同一家中企
10中国足协原主席陈戌源受贿案宣判 无期徒刑
11以色列防长加兰特拒绝安理会停火决议
12外交部驳斥美国声称安理会决议不具约束力
13美国在安理会投弃权票后 以色列取消访美
14耿爽:中国人民绝不会忘记驻南联盟使馆被炸
15突发!布鲁克林民宅大火 连带隔壁一起被烧
16美智库渲染若介入台海冲突 弹药库存一周用
17美国马州巴尔的摩桥梁因货船撞击坍塌
18因为一部韩剧 韩国学校拉响警报 !……
19俄侦查委员会还原莫斯科近郊恐袭时间表
20参与抓捕恐怖分子的车臣战士受奖现场
1江平舟|莫斯科恐袭 美国事先就知情?
2申鹏|他们实现“美国梦”了吗?
3胡懋仁|西方资产阶级带来的观念害人不浅
4突发!俄军发动“最大规模”夜袭
5占豪丨"巴恐"瞄准中国下黑手 不能容忍!
6俄自媒体揭露:全球恐怖势力竟源自单一团伙
7马斯克:美国需要一股"红色浪潮",否则就完
8深得法国精髓:民众在美高官住宅前倾倒粪便
9乌国安国防秘书长侮辱中国特别代表被解雇
10媒体:美国阻止G7发表声明“谴责”俄总统选
11张文木|不讲历史就讲不出道理
12金灿荣|不出意外的话,普京将执政到84岁
13基辅称拦截了大部分俄军的导弹 英媒打脸
14美议员施压政府针对中企无人机,大疆回应
15大批移民冲破铁丝网 试图越过美墨边境涌入
16联合国发布!"美国跌出前20" 中国排名上升
17俄副总理:40%的油气出口使用人民币结算
18美国会议员称美国尚未向台湾交付全部已付费
19【组图】神秘的中朝边境
20俄军检查被击毁的美"艾布拉姆斯"坦克残骸
1夜央 占豪|央视“国骂”令万千网友“破防
2罗思义|美国耗费巨资试图说服中国内部各种
3许多人曾崇拜西方价值观,但现在幻想破灭…
4胡懋仁|兰德公司的两份报告
5戴旭丨很多国人不知反毛背后的大阴谋,令人
6张文木 | 政治的膨胀与政治的文本——历史
7美军公布:六代机最新进展……
8江平舟|莫斯科恐袭 美国事先就知情?
9占豪丨5艘航母,美国开始介入!中国发出最
10李瑞昌|对毛主席最好的纪念是什么?
11牧心 占豪|中美同时拒签 这一默契将引发重
12金灿荣|大陆海警重拳反击 台湾问题快要解
13司马南|美国为什么怕中国汽车?
14科罗廖夫|温压弹能让敌人缺氧而死 谣传!
15牛弹琴|这两个最新动向,让人瞠目结舌
16张文木丨德国宣战后 苏军上报斯大林的报告
17乔新生|特里芬难题决定了美国经济不可能软
18统一"绊脚石"正被踢开!蔡英文最怕一幕发生
19申鹏|这岛上,又岂止“三害”?
20远航|台独是美国豢养的一条狗