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亚洲最可怕的噩梦—中日之战

2014-11-04 20:41 我要评论(1)

关键词:亚洲 噩梦 中日

Let's not understate the likelihood of warin East Asia or kid ourselves that the United States can remain aloof should Chinaand Japanenter the lists. It's tough for Westerners to fathom the nature of thecompetition or the passions it stokes. From an intellectual standpoint, we havelittle trouble comprehending the disputes pitting the Asian rivals against eachother. For example, both Tokyo and Beijing claim sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands,a tiny archipelago near Taiwanand the Ryukyus. Chinacovets control of offshore air and sea traffic, hence its new East China SeaAir Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and its efforts to rewrite the rulesgoverning use of the nautical commons. Undersea energy resources begetfrictions about where to draw the lines bounding exclusive economic zones(EEZs). And so on.

不要低估了东亚爆发战争的可能性也不要骗我们说美国会对中日两国走入战争议程冷眼旁观.对西方国家来说,要定义两国之间竞争与友好是不容易的.理智地说,那些使亚洲国家之间产生裂缝的争端对我们来说并不难理解.比如,东京和北京都在宣称自己对尖阁列岛/钓鱼岛的主权,那是一个靠近台湾和琉球的小岛屿。中国垂涎于对岛屿领空和海洋交通的控制,因此提出了新的东海防空识别区,并试图改写岛屿使用管理规则。由于争夺海底能源资源而导致的关于海底专属经济区的划定。诸如此类。

The facts of these cases are outwardlysimple. They're about how to divvy up territory and stuff. Outsiders get that.But therein lies a danger -- the danger of assuming that tangible, quantifiablethings are all there is to an impasse. That's doubly true when the territoryand stuff under dispute command trivial worth. By strategist Carl vonClausewitz's cost-benefit logic, the Senkakus or Scarborough Shoal meritminimal time or resources from any of the protagonists. Hence commentatorswonder why compromise appears so hard when the stakes are so small by objectivestandards. They find it baffling that great powers would risk war over"uninhabited rocks in the East China Sea.”

这些事情表面上看来都很简单。就是如何瓜分主权。这点显而易见。但是这里面潜藏着一个危险——即所有迹象表明这将是一个僵局。当国家主权陷入争端时,不值得大费周章去争取这是完全正确的。用战略家Carl von Clausewitz的成本分析逻辑,争议双方都应用最小的时间和资源投入去处理黄岩岛的争端。所以,评论家们很难理解,按照客观标准,黄岩岛的赌注这么小为什么双方达成和解却那么难。他们发现如果超级力量要介入东中国海的这个无人居住的岩石小岛挑起战争,那将是令人沮丧的。

Why, they ask, can't the contenders justsplit the difference -- restoring regional harmony in the bargain, and sparingothers needless entanglements and hardships? To cling fast to objects of littleobvious value seems obtuse, if not irrational and self-defeating.

大家会问,为什么这些竞争者就不能搁置争议呢——回复地区和平,摒弃那些无谓的争端和责难?如果合理但不利己,只是为了达到一个几乎毫无意义的目的那也着实让人难以理解。

Is it? Sci-fi master Robert A. Heinleinmight jest that Westerners understand these matters but don't grok them. Greatquestions encompass not just the concrete interests at issue but also largerprinciples. Heinlein coined the term grok for his classic Stranger in a Strange Land. It means "to understand sothoroughly that the observer becomes a part of the observed." It meansfeeling something in your gut, not just knowing it intellectually. He appearedto despair at one person's capacity to truly know another. To grok "meansalmost everything that we mean by religion, philosophy, and science." Butsuch "deeper understanding," vouchsafes Heinlein, eludes most peopleas color eludes "a blind man." The result: an unwitting empathydeficit toward allies and prospective adversaries alike.

是这样的吗?科幻小说家Robert A.Heinlein说过,西方国家对这些事情是知其然不知其所以然。这里面涉及的可不仅仅是具体的利益,还有更重大的原则问题。Heinlein在他的小说中刻画了一个典型的在陌生区域的陌生人的所谓grok的状态。它是指“观察者变成被观察者的一部分而彻底清楚了被观察者的情况”。它是指从你的内心去理解一些事情而不是只了解它的表象。他对人们了解其他人的能力感到绝望。Grok可以指“宗教、哲学、科学中保函的一切事”。但是就像色盲无法分辨颜色一样,大多数人也无法领会Heinlein所指的这种“更深层的理解”。 而这导致的结果是:对盟国和潜在的对手产生移情缺失症候。

Yet grok grim strategic realities we must.This competition is about more than islets or ADIZs. Nothing less than thenature of the Asian order is at stake. Making the world safe for democracy, oroligarchy, or whatever regime holds power at home constitutes a basic impulsefor foreign policy. From the age of Thucydides forward, nations have spentlavishly to preserve or install regional orders hospitable to their ownnational interests and aspirations. By surrounding itself with like-mindedregimes, a nation hopes to lock in a favorable, tranquil status quo. As it wasin antiquity, so it remains today. Imperial Japanupended the Asian hierarchy in 1894-1895, smashing the Qing Dynasty's navy andseizing such choice sites as Port Arthur on the Liaotung Peninsula. It began making Asia safe for a Japanese empire.

然而我们必须要领会如今这种残酷的战略事实。这不是一场仅仅关于几个小岛和防空识别区的竞争。它的危险不亚于对亚洲秩序的破坏。为了世界民主,或是施行寡头政治,亦或是其他国家掌握本国政治,不同的政治意图导致了国家外交政策的不同。从修西得底斯时代开始,各国便不惜斥巨资来营造一个能够实现本国的利益和宏愿的周边环境。每个国家都希望有一个良好、稳定的周边环境,所以他们会让自己处在相同政体的国家包围之中。这种传统延续至今。1894年-1895年,日本帝国覆灭了清王朝的海军并借机入驻辽东半岛,就像当初他们在阿瑟港一样,从而进一步打破了亚洲的统治局面。至此,亚洲的安全便在日本帝国的操纵之下。

Military triumphs often underperform theirpolitical goals. But as my colleague and friend Sally Paine notes, the firstSino-Japanese War was a limited war whose effects were anything but limited.The Qing regime remained in place following its defeat, but the Treaty ofShimonoseki, which terminated the conflict, signified Japan's eclipse of Chinaas Asia's central power. The treaty's terms --in particular its transfer of Taiwanto Japan-- modified the regional order in ways we still live with today. Indeed,Professor Paine points out that Chinese foreign policy since 1895 has strivento repeal Shimonoseki,while Japanese foreign policy has sought to reaffirm it.

军事上的胜利往往无法与政治上的野心保持同步。就像我们的朋友Sally Paine说的,第一次中日战争只是一场有限的战争,并不产生什么影响。清政府战败后仍旧继续它对中国的统治,但是双方签署的《马关条约》却让日本侵蚀了中国作为亚洲权力中心的地位。这个合约的条款包括:割让台湾给日本,按照我们至今仍让沿用的方式调整区域秩序。更有甚者,Paine教授指出,1895年开始中国致力于通过外交政策废除《马关条约》,而日本却通过一系列努力来稳定这个条约。

以下是来自美国网友评论:

★Chinabecause of its enormous wealth now, created by the west and now being aregional power in the region is becoming the bad guy in the neighborhood. Inthe name of peace Chinashould just leave the way it is in the Pacific, it seems logical that Japan owns the Shinkaku islandand the different owners of several reefs islets in South China sea, should just be left as it is. China claimshistorical into it but no hard evidence to prove it. Whoever occupies it nowshould just be left alone and maintain peace and stability in the region. China is usingcarrot and stick in south China sea. In the end she will loose anywayregardless of conflicts with smaller countries or seizing more territoriesbecause these countries being harassed by China will not forget it and willget even in near future.

现在的中国因为西方而产生的财富使得她成为了区域内的强者,但却不是一个好邻居。中国宣称的和平政策也在太平洋上变了味道,Shinkaku island属于日本,南中国海上的一些小岛屿属于日本一些个人,这本是合理的,但是这种合理的现象也不复存在。中国人把历史因素搬进来,但却没有足够的证据去证明它。现在谁拥有它已经不重要了,为了地区的和平稳定才是王道。中国现在对南中国海是软硬兼施。如果中国不顾和周边小国的争议或是因为他们厌倦了和中国的争议而让中国获得更多的领土主权,最后的结局是中国什么也得不到,因为这些国家心里都记着呢,他们一定会在不久的将来讨回来。

★Chinadoes not have "enormous wealth." Read the economist articles. Awfulair and water, and a population in 20 years that has 70% over the age of 65will keep Chinain check. Can you imagine the air in China with a bombing campaign?

中国并没有“巨额财富”。糟糕的空气和水质,加上20年会就有70%的人口超过65岁这些因素牢牢抑制了中国的发展。你能想象中国发起运动的浓烈气氛吗?

★You are throwing a country the size of the United Statesinto one narrow minded boat. The pollution in Beijingis like the pollution in a big UScity. What effects NYC does not effect Utah.China's west is vast likethe midWest of the United  States. China'sQinghai province is the equivalent to Montana.... blue sky all day long but the majority ofpeople still prefer to live on the sea coast just like in the United States. Considering that Chinadoesn't "import" people from other countries like the United Statesdoes, its all relative. In another decade China could decide to change theirbirth policies to three children if need be and that would affect the numbersgreatly. If China startedallowing more immigrants from North Korea,Mongolia and Vietnam, thenthe situation would be different too. But since Chinahas real homeland security and kicks illegal aliens out rather than throw pityparties for them, the situation is completely different than in the United States....

你太小看中国了,毕竟她的规模和美国是不相上下的。北京的人口就像美国一个大城市的人口一样多。能影响纽约的因素不一定能也会影响犹他州。中国的西部很大就像美国的中西部一样。中国的青海省就像蒙大纳一样---青天白云,但是大部分人沿海而居,就像在美国一样。中国没有像美国一样从全世界“进口”公民。几十年后如果需要,他们可以调整生育政策,允许生三个孩子,那样人口情况就会发生很大变化。如果中国允许更多孩子北朝鲜、蒙古、越南的移民,那情况也会不一样。但是中国注重国土安全,会把非法居留者一律遣送出国,所以情况有和美国完全不同了------

★ I agree. What you just stated proves mypoint. And NO! None of our cities are slogged up like China. We outsourced that pollution to you in China. We thank you for letting usdo that. So let Chinachange the birth policy. Happy screwing. Lmfao. And we import all nations.Chinese are shooting themselves in the foot by not doing so. Wars are won byhaving many different brains in a think tank. One culture vs. Multi culturalloses usually. 1 way of thinking will get you killed. And I am glad we let allstates have rights. Go ahead and let Beijingdictate policy for all. Another downfall. Lmfao. I sure like China and Russia squashing the Internet tokeep you all stupid. Do not lecture me on what makes us superior to you. If China and Russia always do what they havealways done...they will always be what they have always been. I hope you do notchange. The USAwill keep superiority. From Canadato Harlingen Texas we have 66% of the world's fresh watersupply. The rest of the world splits the rest. Water dictates who the shots. 

我同意。你证明了我的观点。不!我们没有一个城市是像中国的城市那样艰难。我们向中国进口人口。我们感谢你们让我们这么做。所以,让中国去改变他的生育政策吧。乐见其成。我们进口任何国家的人口。但中国没有这么做。战争是靠不同大脑组成的智囊团取胜的。通常单一文化是敌不过多元文化的。用一种方式思考只能面临被宰杀的命运。我很高兴我们国家赋予每个州权利。继续,继续让其他省份的政策都听令于北京。  我很喜欢中国和俄罗斯对网络的封管进而导致的愚民行为。不要再考我说为什么我们会比你们强了。如果中国和俄罗斯继续他们的所为那么他们只会倒退到原来的样子。我是希望你们维持原貌不要改变的。美国会持续领先。从加拿大到哈根斯,我们拥有全球66%的淡水供应量。其他国家共享剩余33%的水资源。谁控制水资源谁就是老大。

★can you imagine a bombing in new York, if china and japan were to engage in amilitaryconflict Americawill step in and you know what I will like to see that day even for a second!!!!!

如果中国和日本产生军事纷争,那么美国一定会介入,你能想象一颗炸弹落在纽约的场景吗,你知道我想看那天(9.11)重演的场景!!!

★1st of all, use your Chinese name. Do notbe a woos. 2ndly, a bomb from Chinato New York would see the end of Beijing. The Chinesemight want to clean their own air and water before causing what little theyhave to be destroyed. How can Chinabe number 1 if it can't breathe or drink. Lmfao

首先,请用你的中国名字。第二,从中国飞到纽约的炸弹最后会落到北京。再被毁灭之前,中国还是先想想怎样清洗水质和空气吧。如果连喝水、呼吸都困难,中国还谈什么称霸?

★ bombing Beijing may actually clean the air. The shockwaves would clear the smog out.

炸弹会把北京的空气清干净的。冲击波会驱散雾霾。

★Why doesn't China appeal in internationalcourt?

为什么中国不呼吁国际法庭的帮助?

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关键词:亚洲 噩梦 中日

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"马平:作为前工程师,我认为深圳滑坡事故是这么回事" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297295.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1225/1451004166233.jpg" ["description"]=> string(183) "一般来说,规划和建设部门会分别对建设区附近的地质条件进行勘探,分析地质灾害的可能性。对于可能出现滑坡的地段,应该进行治理。" ["time"]=> int(1451004167) } [10]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297290) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(45) "寒竹:中国历史中的社会主义根基" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297290.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1225/1451003740374.jpg" ["description"]=> string(213) "在经济领域进一步深化市场化导向的改革,是当下中国发展的一个重要方向。市场能够最大限度地实现资源的有效配置,从而给经济发展提供强大而持续的动力。" ["time"]=> int(1451003764) } [11]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297248) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(69) "自导自演的和平演变:越南反共总理政治炒作的背后" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297248.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1224/1450949829631.png" ["description"]=> string(303) "越南中央级的党报党刊、军报军刊最近发表大量文章,阐述党的路线和大政方针,同时揭露、批判“国内外各种敌对势力和政治机会主义分子”在十二大前的各种破坏阴谋和伎俩,强调要防范和反对“和平演变”和“颜色革命”。" ["time"]=> int(1450949950) } [12]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297247) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(42) "津巴布韦缘何“相中”人民币?" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297247.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1224/1450948423306.png" ["description"]=> string(140) "中国是津巴布韦的第二大贸易合作伙伴,每年双边贸易额超过10亿元,津巴布韦对人民币的需求日趋强烈。" ["time"]=> int(1450948518) } [13]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297246) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(33) "台湾选举提前结束了吗?" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297246.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1224/1450946885538.jpg" ["description"]=> string(108) "本来选战就是中间选民的争夺战,这一次,国民党要找回自己的基本盘,怎么了?" ["time"]=> int(1450946760) } [14]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297058) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(90) "清华博士:台湾是“杀出来的奴才,打出来的顺民,惯出来的孽种”" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297058.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1223/1450833056693.png" ["description"]=> string(297) "一直以来,中国政府奉行对台让利政策,对台湾的开放程度远远超过台湾对大陆的开放程度,就已在太阳花运动中被否定的“贸服协定”为例,对大陆的要求几乎全部是高于WTO中的规定,而对台湾却几乎全部是低于WTO的规定。" ["time"]=> int(1450833467) } [15]=> array(11) { ["contentid"]=> int(1297067) ["icon"]=> string(0) "" ["iconsrc"]=> string(0) "" ["title"]=> string(60) "金庸:揭中国人不擅长打仗为何却能赢的真相" ["color"]=> string(0) "" ["url"]=> string(46) "http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2015-12/1297067.shtml" ["subtitle"]=> string(0) "" ["suburl"]=> string(0) "" ["thumb"]=> string(47) "http://upload.m4.cn/2015/1223/1450834511242.jpg" ["description"]=> string(243) "现在许多西方学者都认为,地球就这样大了,无止境地追求、扩充,是不可能的,也是不可取的。今後只能接受中国的哲学,要平衡、要和谐,民族与民族之间要相互协作,避免战争。" ["time"]=> int(1450834575) } }

朱维群:达赖与暴力恐怖主义的关系能撇清吗

1索纳丽丨你美国人买不起电动汽车,这就是原
2BBC记者设套遭RT总编辑遭当面打脸
3世贸组织裁决中方胜诉 澳大利亚:接受裁决
4借口“国家安全”,英美瞄准同一家中企
5坏土豆|莫斯科恐怖袭击的真凶!全面战争将
6常规武器中的顶尖之作:体积爆炸物(ОДБ
7美国四胞胎妈妈秀400万美元帐单 网友震惊
8卞海涛丨菲律宾侵占仁爱礁的图谋不会得逞
9细数美军工复合体如何获取“战争暴利”
10国防部:只要不搞“台独”,就没必要焦虑
11占豪丨中国改变世界的大招正在起关键作用!
12牛弹琴丨这件事,特朗普真做不到
13后沙:《杜鹃花落》,文责自负!
14胡懋仁|西方大公司放弃电动汽车意味着什么
15中巴双方有决心有能力让恐怖分子付出应有代
16伦比亚总统佩特罗:以色列不停火,就断交!
17美国一大桥被撞坍塌 美网友开启"斗图"模式
18习近平会见美国工商界和战略学术界代表
19尴尬!哈里斯互动 不料对方唱的是反美歌曲
20俄军飓风火箭炮摧毁多个乌军目标
1江平舟|莫斯科恐袭 美国事先就知情?
2申鹏|他们实现“美国梦”了吗?
3胡懋仁|西方资产阶级带来的观念害人不浅
4突发!俄军发动“最大规模”夜袭
5占豪丨"巴恐"瞄准中国下黑手 不能容忍!
6俄自媒体揭露:全球恐怖势力竟源自单一团伙
7马斯克:美国需要一股"红色浪潮",否则就完
8深得法国精髓:民众在美高官住宅前倾倒粪便
9乌国安国防秘书长侮辱中国特别代表被解雇
10索纳丽丨你美国人买不起电动汽车,这就是原
11俄副总理:40%的油气出口使用人民币结算
12美国会议员称美国尚未向台湾交付全部已付费
13【组图】神秘的中朝边境
14俄军检查被击毁的美"艾布拉姆斯"坦克残骸
15纽约市真实生活成本曝光 半数家庭靠援助过
16女分尸案曝可怕细节!无法排除受害者活遭斩
17果然,谁跟中国有矛盾美国就支持谁?
18外媒:第聂伯河水电站被炸,现场曝光
19肖志夫|“人工智能”正在颠覆现代战争形态
20扎哈罗娃评联合国立场:是谴责不是感到悲痛
1夜央 占豪|央视“国骂”令万千网友“破防
2罗思义|美国耗费巨资试图说服中国内部各种
3许多人曾崇拜西方价值观,但现在幻想破灭…
4胡懋仁|兰德公司的两份报告
5戴旭丨很多国人不知反毛背后的大阴谋,令人
6张文木 | 政治的膨胀与政治的文本——历史
7美军公布:六代机最新进展……
8江平舟|莫斯科恐袭 美国事先就知情?
9占豪丨5艘航母,美国开始介入!中国发出最
10李瑞昌|对毛主席最好的纪念是什么?
11牧心 占豪|中美同时拒签 这一默契将引发重
12金灿荣|大陆海警重拳反击 台湾问题快要解
13司马南|美国为什么怕中国汽车?
14科罗廖夫|温压弹能让敌人缺氧而死 谣传!
15牛弹琴|这两个最新动向,让人瞠目结舌
16张文木丨德国宣战后 苏军上报斯大林的报告
17乔新生|特里芬难题决定了美国经济不可能软
18统一"绊脚石"正被踢开!蔡英文最怕一幕发生
19申鹏|这岛上,又岂止“三害”?
20远航|台独是美国豢养的一条狗